Global Leader in Hydro Power and Aluminium
Chinese Aluminium Market to Stay in Surplus in 1H 2020
Ent
GROUP
Chinese smelters costs
•
Chinese aluminum sector is affected by virus and seasonality factor
shows rapid growth of aluminum inventories as a result of continued
production and weak demand.
Social inventory stock rose by 1 million tonnes in 2 months and continues
to rise. Some metal is also being held by smelters due to logistic
constraints.
RMB/t
15000
14000
13000
12000
•
At current SHFE price of RMB 11,325/t, all Chinese smelters are loss
making.
11000
SHFE
=
RMB 11,325/t (March 23rd)
•
Chinese aluminum market to be in surplus for 2020 after deficit in 2019.
This should cap aluminum price growth in 1H20.
Chinese aluminum balance
10000
OMt
5Mt
10Mt 15Mt 20Mt 25Mt 30Mt 35Mt 40Mt
-Full Costs exc. depr., Feb 2020
Chinese regional stocks
Mnt
Stocks, kt
47
400
300
43.4
43.5
2000
Stocks in days of consumption
40.0
42.5 42.5
39.0
39.0
40.2
41.5
41.5
200
40.3
42
0
0
0
0
1600
37.6
36.8
37.3
37
35.7
-50
-150
-200
1200
-400
20.0
32
32
-600
800
-800
27
-1029
400
-1,000
0
0.0
22
22
-1,200
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Feb-19 Apr-19
Jun-19
Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Feb-20
Production
Consumption
Balance (kt)
Wuxi
Gongyi
Shanghai
Hangzhou
Nanhai
Tianjin
Source: CRU, LME, companies data, RUSAL analysis
En+ Group overview
Investment highlights
Sustainable business
development
Results snapshot
Power segment
Metals segment
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