Investor Presentaiton
MRP
MANAGEMENT DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS
(Within the limits set by Company's competitive position)
MRF maintained its leadership in the Indian market in the year gone by. Brand
Finance rated MRF as the second strongest tyre brand in the world, besides
rating MRF the most valued Indian tyre brand.
The world was largely free of the impact of Covid in 2022-23. The war in
Ukraine dragged on with progressive reduction in the impact on commodities
during the course of the year. Supply chain disruptions are receding
while impact on food and energy markets have reduced. War on inflation
continued with Central Banks around the world raising interest rates and
tightening monetary conditions. Inflation appears to have peaked and seem
to be slowly receding. However, tight labour markets in advanced economies
ensured demand did not slacken even with multiple interest rate hikes which
leaves us with prospects of more rate increases to rein in inflation. US Federal
Reserve raised interest rates by a cumulative 3.5% in the past one year
ending March 2023. The terminal rate that was initially thought to be around
4.6% is now seen crossing 5%, which shows that inflation is entrenched.
The consistent rate increases have led to stress in some parts of the Banking
system. Tighter financial conditions lead to forecasts of recession for parts of
the western world. World Bank warned in a paper in September, 2022 that
the world wide slow down and tightening financial conditions will give rise
to significant financial stress and trigger a global recession in 2023. World
economy performed better in the second half than what was forecasted in the
earlier part of the year.
International Monetary Fund ("IMF") has estimated that world economy grew
by 3.4% in calendar year 2022. As per IMF forecasts, growth will reduce to
2.8% in 2023 and improve modestly to 3% in 2024. Growth would depend
on the trajectory of Inflation and the extent to which Central Banks would hike
interest rates to combat inflation. The challenge before the world is to sustain
growth in a situation where inflation is still not under control despite consistent
rate hikes by Central Banks.
Market & Industry Overview
India retained the tag of the fastest growing major economy in the year gone by.
During the year, India became the 5th largest economy in the world, overtaking
Britain. RBI in its March, 2023 projection estimated India's Gross Domestic
Product ("GDP") to grow at 7% in financial year 2023. Growth was led by
the construction and infrastructure sectors while weakness in consumption
impacted growth in manufacturing.
Global slow down acted as a drag on exports. India's merchandise exports
grew by 6% while overall exports including both Goods and Services grew by
13.8%. Service exports was a bright spot with a growth of 27%. Electronics
exports picked up showing the effectiveness of the make in India program and
Production Linked ("PLI") scheme.
The year saw RBI continuously increasing interest rates, with a cumulative
increase of 2.5% in financial year 2023. Inflation peaked in the 1st quarter and
thereafter we saw a declining trend, reflecting the pass through in commodity
prices. Government took several measures in the first quarter to rein in prices
and improve availability of key products.
The budget was presented against a backdrop of a challenging global
environment. The budget aims to give a bold push to growth with a 33%
increase in the Capital expenditure budget to 10 lacs crore. The high Capex
should further strengthen the private sector recovery. As in the past, this budget
too aligned indirect tax rates to encourage domestic manufacturing. Import
duty exemption on capital goods and machineries used for manufacture of
lithium ion cells for batteries will give a further fillip to sales of Electric Vehicles.
budget also nearly doubled allocation to subsidies under the FAME 2 scheme.
RBI has projected financial year 2024 growth for India at 6.5% while IMF
has projected growth at 5.9%. The moderating inflation prompted RBI to
pause interest rate hike in April, 2023. Monsoon is forecasted to be a little.
less than normal but spatial distribution is key. The Economic Survey noted a
rebound in private consumption which together with strong public spending by
Government is leading to private investments.
Union budget's focus on infrastructure spending coupled with moderating
inflation should be a positive for growth. Export performance being linked to
global economy is unlikely to be a growth driver. RBI in its monthly state-
of-the-economy report (March, 2023 RBI Bulletin) said that India will likely
maintain its growth trajectory. It said "The Indian economy is intrinsically
better positioned than many parts of the world to head into a challenging
year ahead, mainly because of its demonstrated resilience and its reliance on
domestic drivers".
Global auto industry which was recovering from the effects of the Covid
pandemic had further supply chain shocks arising from the war in Ukraine,
with consequent adverse impact on input costs. Second half of calendar
year 2022 showed improvement in supply chain issues with commodity
prices moderating. Growth of Electric Vehicles ("EV") was robust in an
otherwise challenging market. Along with managing the supply chain, Auto
industry has to also manage the transition to Electric Vehicles and handle
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