Investor Presentaiton
Market Curves and Hedge Position Update
VISTRA
Vistra's comprehensive hedging program results in a more stable earnings profile and provides
opportunities to lock-in significant gross margin in the outer years
ERCOT 7x24 ($/MWh)
$60
$50
$40
PJM 7x24 ($/MWh)
$70
$60
$50
$40
$30
$20
$20
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2023
2024
-4/29/2022
-5/4/2023
$30
2025
2026
2027
2028
-4/29/2022
-5/4/2023
Vistra Standalone³
As of May 9, 2023:
Significantly hedged in 2023 and 2024;
supports guidance and insulates near-term
price volatility; as of March 31, 2023, Vistra was
~86% hedged for 2023 - 2025¹
✓
2023 99% hedged
2024 96% hedged
$40
$30
$20
$10
ERCOT 7x16 Spark Spread 4
$40
$30
$20
$10
PJM 7x16 Spark Spread4
5-
$-
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
-4/29/2022
5/4/2023
-4/29/2022
5/4/2023
Currently expect upside to the previously
announced $3.5 billion - $3.7 billion Adj.
EBITDA² mid-point opportunities for 2024 and
2025,3 primarily due to
✓ opportunistic hedging since the
announcement in May 2022
✓ elevated power prices and spark spread levels
Significant opportunity in 2026, but with a
wider range given we are materially more open
in 2026 than 2023-2025
Average hedging percentage is across years 2023-2025, across all markets.
See appendix for similar charts on NY/NE and CAISO markets.
1.
2.
3.
4.
Adj. EBITDA is a reference to Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA, which is a non-GAAP financial measure. See the "Non-GAAP Reconciliation" tables at the end of this presentation for further details.
Range of Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunities as previously announced on the first quarter 2022 earnings call; graphs represent curves through May 4, 2023; range of Adj. EBITDA opportunities does not include
the incremental Adj. EBITDA contribution expected from the Energy Harbor acquisition.
Spark spreads calculated using an assumed heat rate of 7.2 mmbtu/MWh with $2.50 variable O&M (VOM) costs (market power price -(7.2 x gas price + VOM)). Market power price weighted as ERCOT: 90% North Hub, 10% West Hub; PJM:
50% AD Hub, 25% Ni Hub 25% Western Hub. Gas price weighted as ERCOT: 90% Houston Ship Channel, 10% Permian Basin; PJM: 25% Tetco ELA, 25% Dominion South, 25% Chicago Citygate, 25% Tetco M3.
Vistra Investor Presentation/June 2023
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