OCI Global Energy Transition Leadership
Global
OCIGI
Turning Point with Strong Rebound in Nitrogen Prices & Demand
Urea prices have increased by +$100/t from <$300/t levels in June towards $400/t in Q3 and at the start of Q4
Rebound in nitrogen fertilizer prices
Tightening supply balance
Urea granular, FOB Egypt: recent price movement, $/t
1,000
Y-on-Y urea capacity additions, Million t
7
800
600
400
200
Jan-23
Feb-23-
weekly average prices
6
Ammonia
5
cfr NW Europe
4
Ammonia
cfr Tampa
2
Urea fob Egypt
1
=$400
Mar-23-
Apr-23 -
May-23-
Jun-23-
Jul-23-
Aug-23-
Sep-23-
Oct-23-
Sources: CRU, OCI analysis | Notes: Urea capacity additions excluding China
2021
2022
Most capacity from 2022
and 2023 has been
absorbed by the market
in H1 2023
Historical Y-on-Y
Demand Growth
2023
*
2024
Drivers
Demand recovery:
Fertilizer affordability +8% since January 2023
Increased urea import demand in APAC & EU markets
Record sales in India in Jul-Aug 2023, active tender
activity by IPL & RCF supportive of robust import demand
Low nitrogen inventory levels
Very tight supply
Limited supply commissioning 2023 - 2027
Normalization of trade flows
High marginal cost producers
ā Elevated gas forwards for next 2 winters support much
higher marginal cost floors
* incl. Russian capacity at risk of delays
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