Investor Presentaiton
mn bpd
UAE Economic Update
Highlights
ā
Estimated UAE GDP growth for 2011 remains 4.6% largely on the back of higher oil
production, but risks are skewed to the downside for 2012 in the context of recent
global developments
GDP growth forecasts for US (1.5%), Japan (0%) and China (9%) has been
lowered for the year 2011 while GDP growth forecasts has also been lowered for the
year 2012 for US (2%) and Eurozone (1%), since forecasts made earlier this year.
PMI data indicated strong private sector growth in H1 2011, but Q3 2011 data
showed a sharp slowdown in private sector activity, reflecting the impact of weaker
global growth although potentially impacted by seasonal factors
Local inflation remains subdued at 0.6% y-o-y in Aug, despite rising food costs;
declining housing costs are expected to continue to contain headline CPI and average
forecasted inflation this year of 1% is one of the lowest inflation rates in the region.
Oil production rises in Sep after dipping in June
2.8
140
80
120
2.6
100
66
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.0
20
8 % 9 % o
USD per barrel
60
46
40
UAE (lhs)
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research
Emirates NBD
Dec-10 Jen-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11
-----UAE Quota (lhs)
OPEC oll price (rhs)
Aug-09
Source: HSBC, Markit
Sep-09
Oct-08
80-AN
Dec-09
Real GDP Growth Forecasts
2008
2009
2010
2011F
2012F
UAE
7.4%
(1.6%)
(1.4%)
4.6%
4.2%
UK
(0.1%)
(4.9%)
1.4%
1.0%
1.5%
Eurozone
0.3%
(4.1%)
1.7%
1.5%
1.0%
Germany
0.7%
(4.7%)
3.5%
3.5%
2.0%
US
0.0%
(3.5%)
3.0%
1.5%
2.0%
China
9.6%
9.2%
10.3%
9.0%
8.5%
Japan
(1.2%)
(6.3%)
4.0%
0.0%
2.5%
Singapore
1.8%
(0.8%)
14.5%
5.6%
4.5%
Hong Kong
2.2%
(2.7%)
7.0%
5.3%
5.5%
Source: Global Insight, Emirates NBD forecasts
UAE PMI ā private sector expansion slows sharply
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
4
Aug-11View entire presentation