Investor Presentaiton
Tropical cyclones
It is anticipated that the total number of tropical cyclones may decrease towards the end of the century.
However, it is likely that human-induced warming will make cyclones more intense (an increase in wind
speed of 2-11% for a mid-range scenario (i.e. RCP4.5 which lies between RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 - shown
on pages 4-5) or about 5% for 2°C global warming). Projections suggest that the most intense events
(category 4 and 5) will become more frequent (although these projections are particularly sensitive to the
spatial resolution of the models). It is also likely that average precipitation rates within 100 km of the storm
centre will increase - by a maximum of about 10% per degree of warming. Such increases in rainfall rate
would be exacerbated if tropical cyclone translation speeds continue to slow (5-12).
POTENTIAL FUTURE CHANGES IN TROPICAL CYCLONES: A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE (5-12)ª
Total number
Intensity
Frequency of
category 4 and 5
events
Average
precipitation rates
near storm centre
Increase
Decrease
Sea level rise
Sea level rise is one of the most significant threats to low-lying areas on small islands and atolls. Research
indicates that rates of global mean sea level rise are almost certainly accelerating as a result of climate
change. The relatively long response times to global warming mean that sea level will continue to rise for
a considerable time after any reduction in emissions.
1.7
mm/year (±1.3)
Average change in Caribbean sea level
over the period 1993-2010 (13)
with substantial spatial variability across the region
0.5-0.6m
Further rise in the Caribbean by the
end of the century (14)b
Potential impacts of sea level rise include
Coastal
erosion
☆
Ecosystem
disruption
сс
со Higher
=
with variation amongst models and emissions scenarios
storm surges
Water
contamination
and disruption
Population
displacement
Mental
health
a Information and understanding about tropical cyclones (including hurricane and typhoons) from observations, theory and climate models has
improved in the past few years. It is difficult to make robust projections for specific ocean basins or for changes in storm tracks. Presented here is a
synthesis of the expected changes at the global scale.
b Estimates of mean net regional sea level change were evaluated from 21 CMIP5 models and include regional non-scenario components (adapted
from WGI AR5 Figure 13-20). The range given is for RCP4.5 annual projected change for 2081-2100 compared to 1986-2005.
Dominican Republic
7View entire presentation