Monetizing Innovation and Financial Reconciliation
No clear upswing signal for next 12 month, long-term growth drivers remain sound
Macro headwinds expected to prevail throughout next 12 months - afterwards, back to growth track towards 2026
Macro
sentiment
Automotive
sentiment
Consumer
sentiment
Industry
and
Medical
sentiment
-
next 12 months
June Eurozone and US PMIS weaken further into contraction
territory. China weaker but still above 50.
GDP consensus expectations 2023/24 have stabilized at Eurozone
0.6% 1.0%, US 1.3% 0.7% and China 5.5% / 4.8%.
2023 and 2024 semiconductor forecast w/o memory reduced to
-3% yoy and +5.7% y-o-y.
Light vehicle production in H2/2023 benefits from inventory
restocking and still existing pent-up demand after improved supply
chain conditions; +5.3% y-o-y in 2023.
H1/2024 reflects lowered demand due to expected macroeconomic
headwinds; +1.4% y-o-y in 2024.
Global smartphone forecast 2023/24 reduced to 1.144m / 1.170m
units implying -5.2% / +2.3% growth.
Despite an expected rebound in 4Q23, global smartphone shipments
in 2023 lower than 2022.
Wearable forecast 2023/24 reduced to 504/545m units implying
+2.4% / +8.2% growth y-o-y.
China's Industrial Laser Market shows recovery, China high-tech
manufacturing industries grew 7.4% y-o-y.
German Robotic & Automation sector to grow +13% y-o-y in 2023.
Global LED Lighting shipment forecast for 2023 reduced to
+3.6% y-o-y.
3 years outlook
GDP consensus forecast 2025 shows moderately improving growth in
Eurozone (1.6%) and US (1.9%).
China growth expected slightly lower (4.7%).
- Light vehicle production expected to grow +2.9% y-o-y in 2025 to 90.5m
and +2.0% y-o-y in 2026 to 92.3m units.
- Significant growth in EVS (CAGR 30% over next 3 years; S&P Global
Mobility) that usually also have come with additional emitter & sensor
enabled innovations
Global smartphone forecast 2025 shows growth increasing
to 4.7% y-o-y to 1.224m units.
Wearable forecast shows 6.3% y-o-y growth in 2025 to 580m units.
MicroLED display shipments to increase to 51.7m units in 2030
(1.3% of FPD shipments)
Steady growth of 5-7% p.a. for global industrial robot market until 2027
Horticulture: growing importance of hyper-red lighting for additional
yields of almost one-fifth in tomatoes
China UV disinfection market expected to reach a market size of
US $2.8 bn by 2030 (CAGR 16.2%)
13
Sources:
WSTS Semiconductor Market Forecast Spring 2023
IHS Light Vehicle Production Forecast July 2023
OMDIA Micro LED Display Market Tracker 2Q23
OMDIA Smartphone Model Market Tracker 1Q23
IDC Quarterly Wearable Device Tracker Forecast 1Q23
Trend Force 2023 Global LED Lighting Market Analysis 1H23
VDMA Robotics Automation Market Update
S&P Global, Bloomberg, Hortidaily.com
amu OSRAMView entire presentation