Investor Presentaiton
Macroeconomic Scenarios
Optimistic
SELECT MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES USED TO ESTIMATE EXPECTED CREDIT LOSSES
Base Case Scenario
Alternative Scenario -
Alternative Scenario -
Very Pessimistic
Alternative Scenario -
Pessimistic
Next 12 months
As at
January 31,
2023
As at
October 31,
2022
As at
January 31,
2023
As at
October 31,
2022
As at
January 31,
2023
As at
October 31,
2022
As at
January 31,
2023
As at
October 31,
2022
Canada
Real GDP growth, Y/Y % change
0.8
1.2
1.7
Consumer price index, Y/Y % change
4.1
4.9
Bank of Canada overnight rate target, average
4.2
3.8
4.5
%
Unemployment rate, average %
ㄓˊˊˊ
2.4
(2.2)
(4.8)
(3.2)
(5.9)
4.3
5.2
6.3
9.3
7.0
12.5
4.2
4.8
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.8
5.7
5.4
5.1
7.8
9.7
8.6
10.2
US
Real GDP growth, Y/Y % change
0.6
0.6
1.3
Consumer price index, Y/Y % change
5.0
5.4
32
1.3
(2.3)
(5.1)
(3.2)
(6.5)
5.2
5.8
7.3
10.0
8.1
13.2
Target federal funds rate, upper limit, average
4.9
3.5
5.2
4.7
5.6
4.8
5.8
4.8
%
Unemployment rate, average %
4.2
4.3
4.0
4.2
6.0
7.9
6.7
8.3
Global
WTI oil price, average USD/bbl
94
89
99
95
108
116
80
125
QUARTERLY BREAKDOWN OF THE PROJECTIONS FOR THE ABOVE MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES
Calendar Quarters
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Base Case Scenario
Average
January 31
Calendar Quarters
Q4
Q1
Next 12 months
2023
2023
2023
2023
2023
2022
2023
Q2
2023
Q3
2023
Average
October 31
2022
Canada
Real GDP growth, Y/Y % change
1.7
0.9
0.2
0.3
0.8
1.9
1.2
0.6
1.0
1.2
Consumer price index, Y/Y % change
5.9
4.2
3.6
2.9
4.1
6.9
5.1
4.0
3.6
4.9
Bank of Canada overnight rate target, average %
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.0
4.2
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
Unemployment rate, average %
5.4
5.7
6.0
6.1
5.8
5.4
5.6
5.8
5.9
5.7
US
Real GDP growth, Y/Y % change
0.8
0.8
0.4
0.4
0.6
0.1
0.6
1.0
0.8
Consumer price index, Y/Y % change
6.5
5.3
4.5
3.8
5.0
7.2
5.8
4.6
4.0
Target federal funds rate, upper limit, average %
5.0
5.0
5.0
4.8
4.9
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
Unemployment rate, average %
3.9
4.1
4.3
4.5
4.2
3.8
4.1
4.4
4.8
805 8
0.6
5.4
3.5
4.3
Global
WTI oil price, average USD/bbl
93
97
96
90
94
90
90
89
89
88
89
Source: Scotiabank Economics, forecasts as of December 8, 2022
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