Investor Presentaiton
Odfjell at a glance
Odfjell Tankers
Odfjell Terminals
Capital Allocation
Summary
Future market balance looks favourable, but short term depends on how the
"restart" of the global economy will develop post covid-19
Market drivers
Covid-19
GDP
Swing
tonnage
Demand has continued to grow despite Covid19, albeit at a lower rate. Recovery in volumes
are depending on duration of the ongoing pandemic
We still expect tonne-mile growth between 2 to 4 per cent p.a. through 2022
depending on the outcome for the global economy following Covid-19
Chemical tanker tonne-mile demand, Billion tonne-miles
GDP growth expected to be weak but to recover in 2H20 and to rebound in 2021 by 5.2% (IMF)
Some influx of swing tonnage re-emerging on selected routes, but is not expected to reach
previous peaks
Forecast
Other chemical products
Vegoils
Inorganic chemicals
Organic chemicals
1 138
1 102
1058
1 006
938.
898
8541 868
738
755
777
788
805
669
688
365
376
385
358
351
263
255
286
301
298
333
309
339
245
250
126
132
136
122
106
109
106
94
108
102
99
101
109
115
119
265
302
329
332
330
333
358
362
385
377
397
448
482
506
524
2008 2009
YoY
growth
3%
p.a.
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E
Dependent on outcome of covid-
19 for the global economy
Source: Odfjel SE
The market has gone through a period with high fleet growth, but we expect
growth to decline to 1% on average p.a. through 2022
Reduced
fleet
growth
Deep-sea fleet development, DWT mill.
Very limited growth in supply with an orderbook of only 5.6% which means a likely quick
recovery when demand normalize
Core fleet
Swing/other fleet
Forecast
92
94
95
95
81
75
72
88
15
89
16
16
17
17
17
64
66
68
13
61
13
57
12
50
10
11
12
12
10
Risk
Prolonged global economic slowdown - More influx of swing tonnage
factors
14
68
72
74
76
77
78
78
47
51
53
54
56
59
62
41
2008 2009 2010
YoY
growth
+1%
12 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E
p.a.
Source: Odfjell
+/- Swing tonnageView entire presentation