Investor Update 2021 - BASF's new Verbund site in Zhanjiang
Investor Update 2021
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BASF's new Verbund site in Zhanjiang - Transcript Q&A September 27, 2021
Christian Faitz (Kepler Cheuvreux): At your Capital Markets Day in November 2018,
you saw Chinese chemical production making up for around 50% of global chemical
production. That view has become even more optimistic now, according to slide 4.
Obviously, China, and with it, its chemical industry, has mastered the COVID crisis
much better than many other regions. Yet, COVID could also lead to a redirection of
value chains, resulting in more local production. Could this not also affect chemical
demand in China, away from China, as slow as this migration might be?
Martin Brudermüller: The fundamentals for our evaluation and forecast China did not
really change. Already pre-COVID, we have actually said that more of the power goes
into domestic consumption instead of exports. I would say, the current development
and the strong focus on China itself, but also shutting down with COVID now is even
accelerating this trend. By looking at the data of China and, on the other hand, also all
the factors around the world, in the other markets, that gives us these new numbers.
I mean, everything always has an uncertainty, but I would say we feel very comfortable
with this assessment that China will be an important market and even more important
in the future. As you have seen in the slides, if you look at GDP per capita, you see
how big the gap to the western world still is. And I think that will fuel at the very end a
strong demand, domestic demand, which ultimately will be fueled by chemicals.
Charlie Webb (Morgan Stanley): Can BASF provide its perspective on the recent
power cuts in China and the "dual controls" measure being taken by regulators? What
is the direct and indirect implication for BASF?
Stephan Kothrade: There is now the intention of the Chinese government on all
levels, especially in some provinces that have not achieved their energy savings
targets, to curb power consumption. I can say that the overall impact on BASF
operations in China is currently very limited. Most sites are operating at a very high
production rate, and the indirect impact is sometimes even positive. Let me illustrate
this with the example of our Verbund site BASF-YPC in Nanjing, where the steam
cracker and all the downstream plants are running. At the same time, we see that there
are margin improvements for cracker products, for acrylics, for amines, for polymers.
So somehow, this is currently a net positive impact for BASF. But of course, it remains
to be seen how the situation develops over the weeks and months to come.
Andrew Stott (UBS): The ROCE by 2030 for Zhanjiang (by using the data from slide
26) looks to be around 5% to 6% post tax, depending on the depreciation period for
the assets. Would you agree? And also, how does this compare with the ROCE of the
first five years of Nanjing investment?
Markus Kamieth: Your mathematics are certainly, let's say, in the right ballpark.
However, we always look at the ROCE in a pre-tax way. When we talk about the ROCE
expectations for Zhanjiang, you can be assured that the ROCE contribution of the
Zhanjiang Verbund project will also fit into the overall target of BASF. This has also
been the case for Nanjing already in the first years after start-up. During the expansion
periods of Nanjing and with the depreciation going away, the ROCE of our Nanjing
Verbund site has continuously improved and today is a strong driver for the profitability
of that particular joint venture. So overall, yes, your math is right, and we expect a
ROCE that will contribute overall to the targets of BASF Group.
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