Investor Presentaiton

TD Economics Update 100 Global Outlook: High inflation and recession risks revise global outlook to downside ■ Elevated inflation, energy crises, and the war in Ukraine continue to weigh on the global economic outlook. Although not all countries are experiencing negative pressures to the same scale, global economic prospects have worsened yet again. - TD ■ In Europe, the energy crisis is fuelling inflation and has most bracing for a challenging winter. To keep inflation expectations anchored in the mid-term, the ECB raised its policy rates by 50 basis points – the first hike in 10 years. ■ The impact of the war on North America has been most apparent in the consumer inflation data. Higher food and energy prices have helped push headline inflation to record highs. The recent retreat of commodity prices from their peaks signals future price relief for consumers as lower input prices are gradually passed on. U.S. Outlook: Growth decelerates; inflation and labor supply are challenges ■ The U.S. economy contracted for a second consecutive quarter in Q2 2022, falling by 0.9% (ann.). Inflation remained elevated at 8.5% year/year in July, though price pressures are showing some signs of slowing. ■ The labor market remains tight, with labor demand strong and low unemployment pushing wage growth to the fastest pace in over 25 years. ■ Canada Outlook: Growth slows given high inflation, rate hikes and a tight labor market ■ In contrast to its G7 counterparts, the Canadian economy is expected to continue to outperform over the near-term. Second quarter growth is expected to be 4% (ann.), though a sharp deceleration is expected through the second half of the year. ■ With the labour market remaining tight and inflation elevated, the Bank of Canada is expected to hike rates by at least another 75bps - taking the policy rate to 4.0% - by year-end. 51

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