Fourth Quarter, 2023 Financial Overview
Forward Looking Information
Variables used to estimate our Expected Credit Losses¹
Forward-Looking Information Variables
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
Base Case
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
Upside Case
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
Downside Case
As at October 31, 2023
Canadian GDP YOY Growth
Base Case
Upside Case
Downside Case
0.6%
1.9%
2.0%
2.7%
(0.7)%
1.3%
US GDP YOY Growth
0.9%
1.7%
3.0%
3.1%
(0.8)%
0.9%
Canadian Unemployment Rate
6.1%
5.8%
5.3%
5.4%
7.1%
6.9%
US Unemployment Rate
4.1%
4.0%
3.2%
3.2%
5.4%
4.9%
Canadian Housing Price Index YoY Growth
0.8%
3.0%
4.4%
5.4%
(7.8)%
0.4%
S&P 500 Index YoY Growth Rate
5.5%
5.9%
12.5%
11.1%
(2.5)%
(0.5)%
15.5%
$84
14.8%
14.9%
14.5%
16.1%
15.0%
$76
$97
$110
$70
$58
Base Case
0.8%
1.9%
0.7%
1.7%
Canadian Household Debt Service Ratio
West Texas Intermediate Oil Price (US$)
Forward-Looking Information Variables
As at July 31, 2023
Canadian GDP YOY Growth
US GDP YOY Growth
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
Base Case
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Upside Case
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
Upside Case
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
Downside Case
Downside Case
2.1%
2.5%
(1.5)%
1.2%
2.6%
3.1%
(2.1)%
0.9%
Canadian Unemployment Rate
5.8%
5.9%
5.4%
5.4%
6.8%
6.8%
US Unemployment Rate
4.2%
4.2%
3.2%
3.3%
5.3%
4.9%
Canadian Housing Price Index YoY Growth
(0.9)%
4.0%
4.1%
6.7%
(8.5)%
0.5%
S&P 500 Index YoY Growth Rate
3.3%
5.9%
9.3%
10.8%
(8.8)%
(1.5)%
Canadian Household Debt Service Ratio
15.7%
14.9%
15.1%
14.6%
16.6%
15.1%
West Texas Intermediate Oil Price (US$)
$82
$78
$94
$105
$68
$59
Endnotes are included on slides 58 to 66.
CIBC◇
Fourth Quarter, 2023
52View entire presentation