KASIKORNBANK Strategic Acquisition
K
KASIKORNTHAI
Currency and Interest Rate Outlook
USD/THB: End Period
Bt
37
32.68
32.9135.97 35.84
32
33 30.60
32.66 32.55
29.98
29.9533.41 33.50
29
0.00
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK
Interest Rate Trend
Fed Funds rate
BOT's 1-Day Repurchase rate 3.00-3.25
2.25 2.00
1.50
1.50 1.50 1.50 1.25
1.00
0-0.25 0-0.25 0.25-0150 0.50-0.75 1.25-1150 2.25-2.50 1.50-1.75 0-0.250 0-0.2550
Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22F
4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 4Q18 4Q19 4Q20 4Q21 4Q22F
USD/THB
■ Baht continues to weaken above Bt34.00 per USD
amid strong USD as sign of more Fed's tightening
policy
■ At the end of 2022, Baht would reach 33.50 per
USD as improvements of Thai economy and
current account surplus from a recovery of
tourism
■ Also, BOT would raise its interest rate in 3Q22,
mainly due to inflation concern, supporting Baht
and narrowing interest rate gap
■ However, uncertainties on U.S. recession and
stagflation, the war in Ukraine and Fed's
tightening are main risks to weaken Baht
Note: F is estimated by KBank Capital Markets Research (as of June 16, 2022)
Fed raised its interest rates by 0.75%, the most
since 1994, on 15 June to 1.50-1.75%. The Fed said
the interest rate hike in the next meeting would be
0.50-0.75%
■ Fed may raise its interest rates to 3.00-3.25% in
2022 due to high inflationary pressure from the war
in Ukraine and China's lockdowns
■ Rising Thai inflation, global tightening pressures
and interest rate gap will force the BOT to raise its
interest rates twice this year, once in 3Q22 and
once 4Q22
บริการทุกระดับประทับใจ
K
KASIKORNTHAI
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK
155
Monthly Economic Conditions: April 2022
2021
Units: YoY %, or indicated otherwise
Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
Private Consumption Index (PCI)
Non-durables Index
Durables Index
Service Index
Passenger Car Sales
Motorcyde Sales
-1.6
12.4
-0.1
1.0
-7.2
-8.6
-5.6
-2.9
3.8
1.2
5.6
2.6
0.8
8.1
-4.8
6.0
3.9
2.2
-10.7
-10.9
-8.7
-6.3
-5.0
-2.0
3.1
4.4
-5.0
2.5
0.2
54.9
24.3
12.0
-8.0
22.3
11.4
-7.4
22
-7.8
14.1
12.2
0.2
3.0
3.6
14.1
-0.6
2.3
-48
-8.5
-28
2.0
20
9.9
16.9
14.8
9.8
16.4
6.0
120.4
45.6
23.2
-8.6
38.8
18.8
-13.0
0.5
-20.5
33.6
16.8
-4.0
8.2
65.7
41.7
25.1
-17.4
-28.6
-16.0
-6.9
21.5
15.6
7.0
13.9
-7.6
-9.7
Private Investment Index (PII)
9.8
15.4
25.0
17.8
9.9
5.7
7.4
7.6
5.5
3.6
7.6
3.4
1.8
1.4
Construction Material Sales Index
-1.3
-6.2
6.0
-10.8
-18.0
8.1
-1.3
-1.1
-4.2
3.2
-1.7
-1.9
-4.6
7.6
Domestic Machinery Sales at constant prices
19.1
34.5
55.9
43.1
26.3
7.8
15.5
16.3
11.9
8.3
12.9
9.5
4.8
4.0
Imports of Capital Goods at constant prices
17.6
18.1
23.4
21.5
21.5
20.5
13.3
16.3
5.0
3.0
9.6
-6.4
3.9
4.3
Newly Registered Motor Vehides for Investment
0.2
16.6
35.4
11.2
-10.8
+16.0
-9.3
-15.3
5.3
4.5
3.5
8.5
5.0
2.5
Manufacturing Production Index
5.8
17.7
25.5
18.1
3.5
5.3
-0.2
2.4
4.2
6.5
20
2.5
0.4
0.6
Capacity Utilization
63.0
64.0
64.2
64.4
60.1
57.6
61.8
63.4
64.0
65.5
63.7
63.7
63.8
63.7
Agricultural Production Index
1.6
11.8
4.3
4.1
12.0
9.2
1.0
6.0
1.3
2.0
0.9
8.8
4.9
2.8
Agricultural Price Index
3.0
12.5
14.3
10.5
0.7
-6.5
-7.8
-8.1
-3.2
-2.1
4.5
0.4
8.8
10.1
Tourist arrival growth
93.6
NA.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
1589.2
2882.4
3413.7
1641.2 2564.6
3028.2 3339.0
Exports (Custom basis)
17.1
12.9
41.6
43.8
20.3
8.9
17.1
17.3
24.7
24.2
8.0
16.2
19.5
Price
26
-1.0
1.3
3.6
22
2.4
23
3.3
5.9
6.8
3.6
3.8
4.5
5.0
Volume
15.0
15.4
38.5
40.9
17.8
5.2
14.1
12.6
19.1
19.0
4.1
11.6
13.8
1.5
Imports (Custom basis)
29.8
27.8
62.0
52.4
45.9
47.9
30.3
34.6
20.5
33.4
20.5
16.8
18.0
21.5
In April 2022, private
consumption rebounded, due to
a less concern on the Omicron
outbreak.
14.4 Exports growth decelerated, due
to the impact from
Russia-Ukraine issue and
China's Zero-COVID measure.
■Current account registered a
deficit, due mainly to large trade
deficit as exports of gold
dropped.
9.9 April's headline inflation slightly
declined but remained at high
level as the Russia-Ukraine war
has driven the global energy
Price
4.3
7.9
7.0
6.6
3.7
1.9
3.5
5.0
6.4
5.8
9.5
10.8
13.6
13.7
Volume
18.3
12.2
44.0
36.1
31.6
37.0
16.4
14.3
6.7
21.1
8.2
3.1
27
4.7
price.
Trade Balance ($ millions) (Custom basis)
3,573
472
997 1,152
183 -1,216
610
-370
1019
354 -2526
123
1459 -1,908
Current Account ($ millions)
-10,901.9
-77 -1583
-818 -1590 -2731
-791
1058
346
-1378 -2204
-652
1245
3351
Headline CPI
1.23
3.41
2.44
1.25
0.45
-0.02
1.68
2.38
2.71
217
3.23
5.28
5.73
4.65
Core CPI
0.23
0.30
0.49
0.52
0.14
0.07
0.19
0.21
0.29
0.29
0.52
1.80
2.00
2.00
Sources: Bank of Thailand (BOT), Ministry of Commerce (MOC), Office of Industrial Economics (OIE), and Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE)
บริการทุกระดับประทับใจ
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