Fertiglobe Financial Overview
Agricultural Fundamentals Support Robust Nitrogen Demand At Least Until 2024
Crop prices supported by stocks: use ratio at 10-year lows,
requiring at least until 2024 to replenish
Crop price index, Jan 2006 = 100
Supportive
Pressuring
Tight grain stocks for corn and wheat at further risk given dry weather
in the Northern Hemisphere supportive of demand to rebuild stocks
Global corn STU ex. China, %
18%
Global wheat STU ex. China, %
28%
350
250
Global grain and oilseed stocks: use ratio (ex-China), %
Balanced
22%
15%
20%
تسد
12%
А
18%
Ant
24%
20%
W
150
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
50
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
9%
16%
Medium-term crop prices supported, and incentive to plant corn
US Corn and wheat prices, $/bushel
U.S. latest corn yield estimates down further at
c.172 bu/acre, which is the lowest corn yield in the
U.S. since 2019 and below long-term avg. of 175,
supportive of corn pricing. Dry weather in the Northern
Hemisphere and Argentina add further upside
6%
16%
00/01
07/08
14/15
21/22
00/01
07/08
14/15
21/22
US farmers incentivized to plant nitrogen-intensive corn over soybeans
US CME Soybean to corn ratio
Corn Wheat
3.2x
9.1
3.0x
8.8
8.3
2.8x
7.5
2.6x
6.9
7.0 6.9
6.8
6.2
2.4x
5.8
5.9
5.8
5.6
5.5
2.2x
5.1
5.0
4.9
2.0x
4.4
4.4
འདས་
4.2
3.8 3.6
3.8
3.6 3.7
3.6
1.8x
2012
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2020
2021
2022 2023F 2024F
Fertiglobe
Source: Company Information, CRU, Bloomberg, CME, USDA
Note: (1) 2023 and 2024 grain prices based on December futures
An ADNOC and OCI Company
Chinese corn imports, Mt
FAVORS
SOYBEANS
RoW
USA
Ukraine
+62%
28
20
20
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jul-20
Jan-21
Jul-21
Jan-22
Jul-22
Jan-23
Jul-23
Jan-24
Jul-24
Jan-25
CORN
FAVORS
Jul-25
Jan-26
Jan-19
11
сл
5
2019
2020
2021
2022F
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