Investor Presentaiton
2022 Petroleum and Gas Outlook
$/bbl
150
Petroleum
Gas/LNG
100
50
(GRM)
30
20
10
Dubai
+ Deepening crisis in Ukraine as the U.S., Canada, the U.K., Australia, and Switzerland have
banned imports of Russian oil
+ Other outages such as Libya shutting its largest oil field amid anti-government protests
+ Recovered demand following the easing of lockdowns however market still concerned
about uncertainties of economic growth
Coordinated Strategic Petroleum Reserves Release from IEA member countries to
help ease the supply shortage
ptt
- Increasing supply from OPEC+ (as planned), expect more supply from U.S. Shale oil, and
Iran (if sanction lifted)
Mogas
+ Asian mobility levels continue to improve amid the easing travel restrictions
+ Restocking demand for U.S. summer driving season in 3Q2022
- Rising supply due to increasing refinery runs after maintenance ended and new additional
capacities in China
Gasoil
+ Strong demand recovery in Asia & low global inventory levels
+ Supply concern over the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Low seasonal demand during monsoon season in China and India during 3Q2022
Rising supply due to increasing refinery runs as mentioned
Fuel Oil
0
0
1Q21
Dubai
Price
2Q21 3Q21 4Q21
Mogas
Gasoil
Y2021
1Q22
HSFO
1Q2022
2Q22
⚫VLSFO
3Q22 4Q22
-Singapore GRM
2Q2022(E)
Dubai
Mogas
69.2
95.6
102-107
80.3
113.3
123-128
2022(E)
98-103
116-121
Gasoil
76.0
115.1
132-137
HSFO (3.5%S)
64.4
87.2
106-111
VLSFO (0.5%S)
75.4
107.4
Singapore GRM
3.4
8.0
116-121
14.7-15.7
122-127
95-100
110-115
10.5-11.5
-
Source: PTT, PRISM Petroleum Rolling as of April 2022
$/MMBTU
40
233222050
15
10
Asian Spot LNG
Henry Hub
HSFO:
+ Rising seasonal power demand in the Middle East during 3Q2022
+ Continued high NG prices will encourage the use of fuel oil in the power sector
-
Rising supply from OPEC+, higher refinery utilization rate and Iran (if sanction lifted)
VLSFO: + Refiner tends to shift to produce more gasoil with better crack spread than VLSFO
Rising supply from higher refinery utilization rate
Singapore GRM
+ Improve following the strong gasoline and middle distillates crack spreads
Gas/LNG
Asian Spot LNG: + Geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine
+ European imported more LNG in 2022 to substitute for gas imports from Russia
+ Russian LNG Supply projects delayed
- COVID-19 outbreak and Lockdown in China
1Q21
2Q21 3Q21 4Q21
1Q22
2Q22 3Q22
4Q22
Price
Y2021
1Q2022
2Q2022(E)
2022(E)
Asian Spot LNG
18.5
31.2
34.0
33.8
Henry Hub:
+ Low U.S. Storage Level
Henry Hub (HH)
3.7
4.6
6.8
6.6
Source: EA (Apr. 22)
- U.S. gas production expected to increase from gas support for accelerating
investment
25View entire presentation