Investor Presentaiton
54
AUSTRALIAN BANKING: HOUSING LENDING - ASSET QUALITY
B&DD CHARGE AND AS % OF GLAS
90+ DPD AND GIAS AND AS % OF HOUSING LENDING GLAS
($m)
0.04%
0.03%
0.03%
0.01%
37
($m)
0.62%
0.63%
0.62%
0.58%
55
42
1,606
1,557
1,687
1,778
Mar 15
6
Sep 15
B&DD charge
Sep 16
Mar 15
Mar 16
-B&DD/GLAs (half year annualised)
90+ DPD AND GIAS AS % OF TOTAL HOUSING LENDING GLAS
-
- BY CHANNEL¹
Sep 15
Mar 16
Sep 16
Australian Banking Housing Lending 90+DPD and GIAs
Australian Banking Housing Lending 90+DPD and GIAS/GLAS
AUSTRALIAN MORTGAGES 90+ DPD AND GIAS AS % GLAS -
BY STATE
1.6%
1.3%
1.4%
1.1%
1.2%
1.0%
0.9%
0.8%
0.7%
0.6%
0.4%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
0.3%
Sep 09 Sep 10
Sep 11 Sep 12
―Broker
Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep 15
-Proprietary
Sep 11
Sep 16
Sep 12
- NSW/ACT
QLD
(1) Excludes Asia
Sep 13
Sep 14
SA/NT
VIC/TAS
Sep 15
―WA
Sep 16
-Total
National
Australia
Bank
AUSTRALIAN BANKING: HOUSING LENDING - STRESS TESTING
HOUSING LENDING STRESS TESTING AT NAB
• NAB regularly undertakes stress testing on a Group-wide basis and on
specific risk types
Stress testing and scenario analysis aim to take a forward view of
potential risk events. Outcomes from stress testing inform decision
making, particularly in regards to defining risk appetite, strategy, or
contingency planning
Scenario
•
•
The stress scenario represents a severe recession. In a historical context,
this recession is worse than in the early 1980s or 1990s, only exceeded
by the 1930s recession. Unemployment rises to almost 11% at its peak,
back to the worst post-war level reached in the early 1990s
The downturn is sufficiently severe that it significantly impacts the
property markets, with residential property prices declining by 31% in the
shock scenario. Falls of this magnitude have not been seen in the housing
market in the past one hundred years
Results
•
Estimated Australian housing lending B&DD charge under these stressed
conditions is $1.8bn cumulatively during the four years of the scenario of
which $296m are losses on the segment of the portfolio otherwise
covered by Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI)
STRESSED SCENARIO - MAIN ECONOMIC PARAMETERS¹
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Annual GDP growth (%)
(1.4)
(1.8)
0.5
3.8
Unemployment rate (%)
7.9
9.9
10.9
10.5
House prices (% p.a. change)
(13.6)
(13.0)
(3.9)
(0.1)
Cash rate (%)
2.3
1.0
0.6
0.3
STRESSED LOSS OUTCOMES².3
68
625
595
491
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Portfolio size (exposure at
default, $bn)
350
352
355
362
Net B&DD ($m)4
Gross B&DD ($m)
89
724
711
589
.
The results are comparable to the same stress test six months ago
Net B&DD rate (%) 5
0.02
0.18
0.17
0.14
• All LMI coverage is with external insurers
(1)
(2)
In order to provide comparison with previous half, macroeconomic parameters were kept consistent with 1H16 Results Announcement
Australian IRB Residential Mortgages asset class. Includes Advantedge. Excludes offshore branches
(3)
Based on portfolio as at 31 March 2016
(4)
(5)
Net of LMI recoveries (as opposed to Gross B&DD which includes LMI recoveries). Assumes that in a stressed scenario 47% of LMI claims will be rejected
Stressed B&DD rate is net of LMI recoveries and presented as a percentage of mortgage exposure at default
55
National
Australia
BankView entire presentation