Investor Presentaiton
Macro developments in 1Q20
Gross domestic product
Source: Geostat, IMF
US$ billions
Kil
GEORGIA
CAPITAL
Real GDP grew by 1.5% in 1Q20, according to rapid estimates. IMF forecasts that real
GDP will contract by 4% in 2020, rebounding to 4% in 2021.
20
15
16%
12%
10
4.8%
4.8%
5.1%
4.0%
8%
3.0%
2.9%
אן
Inflation at 6.4% on average in Jan-Apr. IMF forecasts the ave. inflation at 4.7% in 2020.
5
4%
0
0%
-5
-4%
-10
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019*
-4.0%
2020F
NBG decreased the monetary policy rate by 50 basis points to 8.5% end of April.
-8%
2021F
GDP USD
Real GDP, Y-o-Y growth
Exchange rate indices (1 January=100)
Source: NBG
130
USD/GEL
120
USD/UAH
110
100
90
90
3-Jan-2020
13-Jan-2020
23-Jan-2020
02-Feb-2020
12-Feb-2020
22-Feb-2020
⚫USD/TRY
USD/RUB
м
03-Mar-2020
13-Mar-2020
23-Mar-2020
02-Apr-2020
12-Apr-2020
22-Apr-2020
02-May-2020
110
Tourism revenues fell 26% in 1Q20 and 70% in March, as international travel is
halted.
130
Official reserve assets totaled $3.4 billion by the end of March.
120
100
90
$
GEL depreciated in March and stabilised around USD/GEL 3.2 from beginning of
April.
The fiscal deficit and public debt are expected to rise to around 8.5% and 60% in
2020 respectively, according to IMF.
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