Renewable Diesel Feedstock Perspective
OUTLOOK:
ADD CANADA, RFS SHORT, SAF, OPT-INS AND EXPORTS
• US RFS statutory shortfall
Canadian Federal program
SAF growth
Immediate supply can only come by
cannibalizing RD capacity
2030 outlook assumes 70 mbpd of North
American RD capacity is used for SAF
Continuing opt-ins by carbon preference markets
• Trans-Atlantic trade flows
mbpd
Supply
BD production
RD production
2020
2030
25
125
120
36
36
Plus capacity announced
BD+RD supplied
310(1)
161
466
"Static" demand (current programs/geographies)
RD to SAF
1
~71
LCFS U.S. & Canada
75
300
RFS non-LCFS
85
95(2)
Static Demand
161
466
Dynamic demand to address identified shortfall(s)
RFS remaining statutory short (2022)
600(3)
285(4)
RD opt-ins in new geographies
150(5)
Export RD to EU (USGC producers)
~50
RD supply shortfall
600
485
RD capacity required, in addition to known
700
570
projects(6)
€2000
(1) 365 mbpd currently announced projects assumed to all go forward; 85% utilization = 310 mbpd.
EPA projected to increase the RVO as capacity comes online; adds 10 mbpd after SAF.
NESCAUM likely; modeled assuming 10% Cl reduction in PADD 1 diesel pool.
2022 RFS ethanol-equivalent shortfall is 15.23 billion gallons = 600 mbpd RD (requires 700 mbpd capacity at 85% utilization).
600 less 310 projects plus 5 BD loss less 10 taken up in non-LCFS demand growth, note (2).
85% utilization.
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