IAS19 Defined Benefit Pension + Mortgage Portfolio Analysis
Forward looking information - macro-economic scenarios
Bank of Ireland
30 June 2023
Central scenario - 40% probability weighting
GDP growth¹
Ireland
United Kingdom
2023
2024
2025-2027
2023
2024
2025-2027
5.4%
4.6%
3.9%
0.0%
1.0%
1.7%
GNP growth¹
Unemployment rate²
5.0%
4.3%
3.7%
n/a
n/a
n/a
4.3%
4.3%
4.5%
4.1%
4.4%
4.4%
Inflation rate²
5.0%
2.9%
2.1%
6.9%
2.8%
1.7%
Residential property price growth³
(2.0%)
0.0%
1.7%
(7.0%)
(4.0%)
1.7%
Commercial property price growth³
(9.5%)
(7.0%)
1.8%
(7.0%)
(6.0%)
2.0%
Upside scenario -15% probability weighting
GDP growth¹
6.1%
5.7%
4.3%
0.9%
2.2%
2.1%
GNP growth¹
5.8%
5.4%
4.0%
n/a
n/a
n/a
Unemployment rate²
4.2%
3.8%
3.5%
3.7%
3.6%
3.5%
Inflation rate²
4.6%
2.3%
2.2%
6.2%
2.1%
2.0%
Residential property price growth³
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
(2.0%)
0.0%
2.3%
Commercial property price growth³
(6.0%)
(1.5%)
2.5%
(3.0%)
1.0%
2.7%
Downside scenario 1 - 30% probability weighting
GDP growth¹
4.4%
2.7%
3.5%
(0.7%)
(1.0%)
1.3%
GNP growth¹
3.9%
2.2%
3.2%
n/a
n/a
n/a
Unemployment rate²
4.9%
6.0%
6.3%
4.9%
5.8%
6.2%
Inflation rate²
5.7%
3.7%
2.0%
7.7%
3.6%
1.5%
Residential property price growth³
(12.0%)
(5.0%)
0.0%
(13.0%)
(7.0%)
(0.7%)
Commercial property price growth³
(12.5%)
(10.0%)
0.0%
(10.5%)
(10.0%)
0.0%
Downside scenario 2 - 15% probability weighting
GDP growth¹
3.0%
0.5%
3.1%
(2.1%)
(2.3%)
0.8%
GNP growth¹
2.3%
(0.2%)
2.6%
n/a
n/a
n/a
Unemployment rate²
5.5%
7.9%
8.5%
5.8%
7.4%
8.0%
Inflation rate²
6.3%
4.2%
1.8%
8.4%
4.2%
1.3%
Residential property price growth³
(16.0%)
(8.0%)
(2.0%)
(17.0%)
(11.0%)
(2.0%)
Commercial property price growth³
(17.5%)
(13%)
(1.8%)
(16.0%)
(12.5%)
(1.8%)
1 Annual growth rate
2 Average yearly rate
3 Year-end figures
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