Decarbonizing Maritime Transport
Methanol and ammonia prices have rebounded
Industrial nitrogen markets structurally tighten
Ammonia prices have room to rise further
Methanol prices benefit from demand recovering
Spot prices +150% since
trough in June 2020
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as high cost producers shutdown with no
capacity additions until 2023
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and market balance tightens significantly
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2021
USGC Contract
USGC Spot
-China CFR Main Ports
Ammonia Bulk FOB Middle East Spot
10-Year Average Ammonia Middle East
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Significant upside for ammonia prices
o Positive fall season in the US with low inventories going into 2021
○ Benefiting from a recovery in industrial markets, further support from higher
Chinese imports
o No major new merchant supply until 2023, and closures in Trinidad
o Room to catch up with increases in urea prices
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Strong recovery DEF markets
■ Melamine tight market conditions as a result of strong demand
OCI
。 OCI recently announced price increase of €350/t for Q2 2021
Methanol spot prices have rebounded since reaching trough in June
○ Strength in recent spot pricing has supported higher contract prices in Q1 2021 in
Europe and the US
o The European contract price in Q1 2021 settled at $476/t and in the US the
contract price for April'21 is at $523/t
■ Demand has been improving gradually:
o Healthy MTO economics driving higher utilization rates in China
o Downstream demand recuperating: fuel consumption picking up; and gradual
return of global industrial and construction activity
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