FY 2021 BALANCED APPROACH BETWEEN INVESTMENT AND COST MANAGEMENT
APPENDIX 17 | RANGE OF MACROECONOMIC SCENARIOS - IFRS9
Canada Real GDP
($ Trillions)
2.40
2.30
2.20
2.10
2.00
1.90
1.80
1.70
Canada Unemployment Rate
(%)
5432-
15
14
13
12
11
10
098765
Q2 20
Baseline (Oct. '21)
Q4 22
Q1 23
Q2 23
Q3 23
Q4 23
Q1 24
Q2 24
Baseline (Jul. '21)
Q3 24
Q4 24
Q3 24
Q4 24
NBC Macroeconomic Forecast: Q4/21 vs. Q3/21
(Full Calendar Years)
Base Scenario
C2021
C2022
C2023
Real GDP (Annual Average % Change)
As at Jul. 31, 2021
6.0%
4.0%
2.2%
As at Oct. 31, 2021
5.0%
4.0%
2.3%
Unemployment Rate (Average %)
As at Jul. 31, 2021
7.7%
6.3%
6.1%
As at Oct. 31, 2021
7.7%
6.4%
6.2%
Housing Price Index (Q4/Q4 % Change)
As at Jul. 31, 2021
10.8%
(1.5%)
(0.9%)
As at Oct. 31, 2021
16.0%
0.0%
(1.2%)
WTI (Average US$ per Barrel)
As at Jul. 31, 2021
66
68
As at Oct. 31, 2021
67
68
88
65
88
65
S&P/TSX (Q4/Q4 % Change)
As at Jul. 31, 2021
21.7%
3.0%
2.0%
As at Oct. 31, 2021
24.0%
3.0%
2.0%
BBB Spread (Average Spread %)
As at Jul. 31, 2021
1.5%
1.6%
1.7%
As at Oct. 31, 2021
1.5%
1.7%
1.8%
Range of Alternative Scenarios (Oct. '21)
Source: NBF Economics and Strategy. Macroeconomic assumptions are for calendar years. See pages 26, 182 and 183 of the Bank's 2021 Annual Report for additional
information.
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