Investor Presentation - Q2 2021
Macroeconomic situation and outlook
Demand for credit expected to pick up
Corporate loans and deposits (YOY, FX-adjusted)
30%
Source: NBP
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
Jan.13 Oct.13 Jul.14 Apr.15 Jan.16 Oct.16 Jul.17
Corporate loans
Apr.18
Jan.19 Oct.19 Jul.20 Apr.21
Corporate deposits
Corporate investment loans
Deposit base is high and unlikely to be reversed. Growth rates of outstanding
credits are negative. Yet, the inflection point is visible. Overall volumes set to
return to positive growth territory by the end of the year.
Government bonds yields begin to rise (bps)
320
Household loans and deposits (YOY, FX-adjusted)
14%
Source: NBP
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Jan.13 Oct.13 Jul.14 Apr.15 Jan.16 Oct.16 Jul.17 Apr.18 Jan.19 Oct.19 Jul.20 Apr.21
Household deposits
Household loans
Mortgage loans
Consumers acquired substantial liquidity buffers (also in cash). Growth rates of
outstanding credits are clearly turning higher. It applies both to mortgage and
consumer loans (both see strong demand).
PLN: weak for the most part of 2021
4.80
280
4.60
240
4.40
200
160
4.20
120
4.00
80
3.80
40
0
3.60
Jan.19 Apr.19 Jul.19
―2Y
5Y
Oct.19 Jan.20 Apr.20 Jul.20 Oct.20
10Y
Jan.21 Apr.21 Jul.21
Source: Bloomberg
Jan.19 Apr.19 Jul.19
―EUR/PLN
CHF/PLN
Oct.19 Jan.20 Apr.20 Jul.20 Oct.20 Jan.21 Apr.21
USD/PLN
Source: Bloomberg
Jul.21
H1/21 was marked by an increase in both long- and short-term yields. NBP's
activity allowed the longer term yields to stay substantially below swap rates.
Monetary policy normalization is coming closer and markets believe in it.
Investor Presentation - Q2 2021
Zloty stayed weaker after NBP's interventions. New tops (4.6800) were made.
Negative real, NBP interest rates and CHF legal risks are weighing on the PLN.
The outlook brightens only a bit along with improving GDP growth.
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