Investor Presentation - Q2 2021
Macroeconomic situation and outlook
Grand reopening meets recurring (albeit every time smaller) Covid-19 risks
20
Consumers feeling better
Unemployment rate expected to decline
10
о
-10
-20
-30
Source: GUS
-40
Jan.16
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
Source: GUS
0%
Jul.16 Jan.17 Jul.17 Jan.18 Jul.18 Jan.19 Jul.19 Jan.20 Jul.20 Jan.21 Jul.21
Consumer Confidence
Self-assessed household financial situation
As economic restrictions are lifted, consumer spirits follow. Strong balance
sheets allow for release of pent-up demand. The structure of consumption will
be skewed more for services for some time.
GDP path and forecast for Poland (% YoY)
Jan.16 Jul.16 Jan.17 Jul.17 Jan.18 Jul.18 Jan.19 Jul.19 Jan.20 Jul.20 Jan.21 Jul.21
Unemployment rate
Start of the year did not reveal any (so far) hidden, structural problem in the
Polish labour market. Therefore, we stick to the view that cyclicality is going to
carry labour market to the stronger side and unemployment rate will lower.
Inflation: off 2.5% NBP target, central bank expected to react
12
-9
22630369
5%
11.3
4.8 4.3
5.5 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.1 5.3 5.1 4.4 3.6
1.9
63.1 3.4 2.8 2.9
6.8
Source: NBP, GUS
4% -
4.9
3%
2%
1%
-3
0%
1.5
-0.9
-6
Source: GUS
-8.4
-2.8 ! mBank's
forecast
-1%
-2%
Q1/16
Q3/16 Q1/17 Q3/17 Q1/18
Investment
Inventories
Q3/18 Q1/19 Q3/19 Q1/20 Q3/20 Q1/21 Q3/21
Net exports
GDP YOY (%)
2015
Consumption
2016
Repo rate
2017
2018
2019
2020
Repo rate forecast
CPI inflation
CPI forecast
2021
O Core inflation
Core CPI forecast
2022
GDP growth is expected to speed up to 5.7% in 2021. Start of the year surprised
to the upside with investment activity. Coronavirus risks present but more
manageable than during previous waves due to vaccination progress.
Investor Presentation - Q2 2021
As expected, Q1/21 marked the trough in annual inflation readings for 2021.
Substantial acceleration is in the pipeline (4.2% on average for 2021) and NBP
is expected to react in early 2022 and hike interest rates.
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