Investor Presentaiton
Firm external position leading to less vulnerability to external shocks
July 2020
Comments
The trade balance deficit amounted US$ 12.6bn in 2019
largely supported by large machinery and equipment,
chemicals, food and agri imports while in 5m 2020 the trade
balance surplus reached and US$ 0.3bn due to decreased
import coupled with relatively stable export
The current account (CA) balance demonstrated surplus
in 5m 2020, resulting from a stable goods export coupled with
decline in imports due to global energy prices decline
2020 CA deficit is expected to reach 1.7% of GDP (per
NBU) as imports will decline more than exports
Negative trade balance was largely offset by personal
money remittances together with capital account inflows
which resulted into positive overall BoP of c.US$ 6.0bn in
2019 and c.US$ 0.2bn in 5m 2020
Private money remittances & travel services trade deficit, US$ bn
Balance of payments components, US$ bn
BoP,
1.3
2.6
2.9
6.0
(0.5)
0.2
US$ bn
10.2
9.3
6.1
5.6
3.1
(1.9)
(3.5)
2016
(6.5)
2017
2018
■Current account balance
(1.1)
(4.2)
2019
0.7
(5.4)
5m 2019
5m 2020
■Financial account balance
Ukraine's current and trade balance dynamics, US$ bn
23%
CA as %
of GDP
(2.0)%
(3.1)%
(4.9)%
(2.7)%
20%
7%
8%
59.2
63.5
7%
53.9
46.0
11.1
9.3
11.9
25.9
24.3
6.5
7.0
7.5
(6.9%)
(7.8%)
3.4
4.0
(8.7%)
4.9
5.9
6.5
6.9
(8.2%)
(29.4)
(24.0)
(24%)
(52.5)
(62.7)
(70.6)
(76.0)
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2016
2017
2018
2019
5m 2019
5m 2020
Travel services trade deficit, US$ bn
Personal money remittances, US$ bn
Remittances y-o-y growth, %
Export of goods and services
Import of goods and services
Trade balance (% of GDP)
Source NBU
BA
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