Russian Forestry and Wood Supply Operations Analysis
PULP AND PAPER INDUSTRY
PULP AND PAPER INDUSTRY
Fig. 4. Investments in fixed assets for P&PI large and
medium-sized facilities in Quarters I-III, 2009-2014
(in adjusted prices of 2009), billions of rubles
18
15,3
16
14,9
14,0
13,7
13,5
12,3
11,3
12
14
10
8
7,9
6
6,8
4
2
2009
2010
2011
Timber processing
P&PI
11,8
10,5
10,0
2012
2013
2014
Source: RAO Bumprom
There are several explanations for this:
• In the first place, the low investment
attractiveness of the domestic pulp and
paper industry for reasons that are well
known (long project payback periods, climatic
conditions, lack of infrastructure, high bank
rates, tax press and the growing prime costs
of products);
• Secondly, some large investment projects in
the sector were completed in the preceding
years, 2013-2014. These are the Greater
Bratsk and Greater Koryazhma projects at the
ILIM Group facilities; the STEP project at the
Mondi Syktyvkar mill and the modernizing of
fixed assets at the Arkhangelsk, Solikamsk,
and Perm pulp and paper mills, the Kamenka
paper mill and some other facilities.
The prices of industrial product manufacturers
are noticeably behind the inflation rate, while
the natural monopoly charge rates are noticeably
ahead. The investment climate continues to
deteriorate.
In recent years, the main part of the investment
was allocated to the modernization of fixed
production assets. The modernization was
carried out by companies on the Ministry of
Fig. 5. Largest investment projects in the Russian P&PI in 2010-2014
Industry and Trade "List of priority investment
projects in forest management" (PIP), currently
containing 122 facilities. The overall investment
provided by PIP is 428 billion rubles, of which 13
are P&PI facilities with a funding of 241 billion
rubles (Fig.5).
of
The increase of capacities, outputs, and consumption
paper and cardboard in the Russian Federation
provided by the PIP meet the "Russian Forestry
and Timber Sector Development Forecast through
to 2030" prepared by the Russian specialist
community to the order of the FAO. When
developing the forecast the experts based their
assessment on the GDP growth rates predicted
by the Ministry of Economic Development
(Fig. 6 and 7).
According to this forecast, the 2030 results
would be:
• paper and cardboard, given the innovative
scenario, 25.5 million tons (with a consumption
of 20 million tons)
.
given the moderate scenario, 18.8 million
tons (and 16.8 million tons)
given the inertial scenario, 14.7 million tons
(and 13.9 million tons)
According to the innovative scenario, the paper
consumption per capita would increase from
54 kg/person nearly threefold. In this case,
the priority in achieving the targets should be
setting up, mostly in forest-abundant regions
of Russia, new capacities to make high-quality
paper grades, up-to-date packaging materials,
and hygienic products oriented primarily at the
domestic market.
These matters were discussed with colleagues
from the UN FAO and International Council of
Forest & Paper Associations during the Annual
Meeting and 55th Session of the FAO Advisory
Committee on Sustainable Forest-based Industries
in St. Petersburg in June 2014. RAO Bumprom
was the sponsor of the site for this important
international event in the forestry industry.
For the first time in its national history, Russia
received such high level forestry industry experts
from around the world.
Unfortunately, despite the best laid plans, life
often takes its own course. Facing the stunted
growth of the economy, the Russian forestry/
timber sector development is steadily following
the inertial scenario, lagging behind not only
the leading countries, but also average global
indicators more and more. Today, implementation
of best accessible technologies (BAT), reducing
the material and energy consumption of
production, and wider use of waste and other
renewable energy sources are becoming the
main priority.
Fig. 6. Production capacities, paper and
cardboard outputs in the RF, and scenarios
of their growth till 2030, millions of tons
BIOREFINING AND BAT
New trends emerging in the world economy
have necessitated the development of industrial
biotechnologies based on renewable resources.
To achieve these goals, strategic programs have
been developed in the worldwide forestry sector,
starting from Agenda 2020 adopted in North
America 20 years ago, and up to the Russian
forest technology platform developed as part of
BIOTECH 2030. The purpose of the Russian forest
technology platform is to implement an innovative
model of development of the national forestry/
timber sector. One of its priorities is the bio-
refining of timber, that is to say, making hi-tech
products with a high added value based on the
integrated deep processing of timber resources
directly in the regions of their cultivation.
Russia has 80 million m³ of low-value timber that
is not utilized. The potential of renewable energy
sources (RES) is 4.6 billion tons of conventional
fuel per year (which is five times more than all
of the country's fuel/energy resources). There
are tremendous opportunities for their use in
the energy sector, in marketable fuel production
(wooden fuel pellets) and in generator gas and
liquid engine fuel production technologies.
Diversification of production facilities should
become the next step, with stage-by-stage
transition to making high added value biochemical
products.
Fig. 7. Consumption of paper and cardboard
in the RF, and scenarios of it's growth
till 2030, millions of tons
Svetogorsk P&P Mill (IP)
Segezha P&P Mill
Syas P&P Mill
Arkhangelsk P&P Mill
Kamenka Paper Mill
Koryazhma (ILIM Group)
Aleksin Paper &
Paperboard Mill
Poligrafkarton
Mondi Syktyvkar P&P Mill
Sukhona P&P Mill
STEP Project
Mayak⚫
Mari P&P Mill
Famadar Kartona Limited
Kama P&P Mill
Solikamskbumprom
Perm P&P Mill
Angara Paper
Kraslesinvest
Ust-Ilimsk (ILIM Group)
Bratsk (ILIM Group)
Selenginsk Pulp & Cardboard Mill
Polar Star
Priority Investment Projects (PIP) 13 facilities
Companies carrying out modernization but not on the PIP list: 9 facilities
P&PI product types
Pulp (cooking)
Paper
Cardboard
48
#6 (2015) RUSSIAN
FORESTRY
Source: RAO Bumprom
2014
7.2
Till 2020
+3.9
P&PI product types
Investment in P&PI, billions of rubles
2014
Till 2020
11.8
26.3
4.9
+1.9
Raw timber consumption, millions of m³
115
+40
3.1
+3.4
New jobs, thousands
720
+4.5
25
production capacities
output
20
innovative
Omoderate
15
O inertial
25,5
25
consumption
innovative
20,0
20
18,2
moderate
O18,8
inertial
16,0
15
13,0
O14,7
14,2
20
O 11,7
9,6
10
7,7
9,0
10
8,3
○ 9,8
10
7,7
7,4 7,6 7,6
7,8
8,2 8,4
8,0
5
10,6
12,5
8,3
10,2
7,5
7,8
8,0
8,6
7,3
7,5
7,6 7,5
6,7
7,4 7,4
5
6,2
8,6 8,7 8,8 9,0 9,1 9,4 9,6 11,2 13,9 16,8 22,1
0
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030
Source: RAO Bumprom
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030
Source: RAO Bumprom
RUSSIAN #6 (2015) 49
FORESTRYView entire presentation