Russian Forestry and Wood Supply Operations Analysis slide image

Russian Forestry and Wood Supply Operations Analysis

PULP AND PAPER INDUSTRY PULP AND PAPER INDUSTRY Fig. 4. Investments in fixed assets for P&PI large and medium-sized facilities in Quarters I-III, 2009-2014 (in adjusted prices of 2009), billions of rubles 18 15,3 16 14,9 14,0 13,7 13,5 12,3 11,3 12 14 10 8 7,9 6 6,8 4 2 2009 2010 2011 Timber processing P&PI 11,8 10,5 10,0 2012 2013 2014 Source: RAO Bumprom There are several explanations for this: • In the first place, the low investment attractiveness of the domestic pulp and paper industry for reasons that are well known (long project payback periods, climatic conditions, lack of infrastructure, high bank rates, tax press and the growing prime costs of products); • Secondly, some large investment projects in the sector were completed in the preceding years, 2013-2014. These are the Greater Bratsk and Greater Koryazhma projects at the ILIM Group facilities; the STEP project at the Mondi Syktyvkar mill and the modernizing of fixed assets at the Arkhangelsk, Solikamsk, and Perm pulp and paper mills, the Kamenka paper mill and some other facilities. The prices of industrial product manufacturers are noticeably behind the inflation rate, while the natural monopoly charge rates are noticeably ahead. The investment climate continues to deteriorate. In recent years, the main part of the investment was allocated to the modernization of fixed production assets. The modernization was carried out by companies on the Ministry of Fig. 5. Largest investment projects in the Russian P&PI in 2010-2014 Industry and Trade "List of priority investment projects in forest management" (PIP), currently containing 122 facilities. The overall investment provided by PIP is 428 billion rubles, of which 13 are P&PI facilities with a funding of 241 billion rubles (Fig.5). of The increase of capacities, outputs, and consumption paper and cardboard in the Russian Federation provided by the PIP meet the "Russian Forestry and Timber Sector Development Forecast through to 2030" prepared by the Russian specialist community to the order of the FAO. When developing the forecast the experts based their assessment on the GDP growth rates predicted by the Ministry of Economic Development (Fig. 6 and 7). According to this forecast, the 2030 results would be: • paper and cardboard, given the innovative scenario, 25.5 million tons (with a consumption of 20 million tons) . given the moderate scenario, 18.8 million tons (and 16.8 million tons) given the inertial scenario, 14.7 million tons (and 13.9 million tons) According to the innovative scenario, the paper consumption per capita would increase from 54 kg/person nearly threefold. In this case, the priority in achieving the targets should be setting up, mostly in forest-abundant regions of Russia, new capacities to make high-quality paper grades, up-to-date packaging materials, and hygienic products oriented primarily at the domestic market. These matters were discussed with colleagues from the UN FAO and International Council of Forest & Paper Associations during the Annual Meeting and 55th Session of the FAO Advisory Committee on Sustainable Forest-based Industries in St. Petersburg in June 2014. RAO Bumprom was the sponsor of the site for this important international event in the forestry industry. For the first time in its national history, Russia received such high level forestry industry experts from around the world. Unfortunately, despite the best laid plans, life often takes its own course. Facing the stunted growth of the economy, the Russian forestry/ timber sector development is steadily following the inertial scenario, lagging behind not only the leading countries, but also average global indicators more and more. Today, implementation of best accessible technologies (BAT), reducing the material and energy consumption of production, and wider use of waste and other renewable energy sources are becoming the main priority. Fig. 6. Production capacities, paper and cardboard outputs in the RF, and scenarios of their growth till 2030, millions of tons BIOREFINING AND BAT New trends emerging in the world economy have necessitated the development of industrial biotechnologies based on renewable resources. To achieve these goals, strategic programs have been developed in the worldwide forestry sector, starting from Agenda 2020 adopted in North America 20 years ago, and up to the Russian forest technology platform developed as part of BIOTECH 2030. The purpose of the Russian forest technology platform is to implement an innovative model of development of the national forestry/ timber sector. One of its priorities is the bio- refining of timber, that is to say, making hi-tech products with a high added value based on the integrated deep processing of timber resources directly in the regions of their cultivation. Russia has 80 million m³ of low-value timber that is not utilized. The potential of renewable energy sources (RES) is 4.6 billion tons of conventional fuel per year (which is five times more than all of the country's fuel/energy resources). There are tremendous opportunities for their use in the energy sector, in marketable fuel production (wooden fuel pellets) and in generator gas and liquid engine fuel production technologies. Diversification of production facilities should become the next step, with stage-by-stage transition to making high added value biochemical products. Fig. 7. Consumption of paper and cardboard in the RF, and scenarios of it's growth till 2030, millions of tons Svetogorsk P&P Mill (IP) Segezha P&P Mill Syas P&P Mill Arkhangelsk P&P Mill Kamenka Paper Mill Koryazhma (ILIM Group) Aleksin Paper & Paperboard Mill Poligrafkarton Mondi Syktyvkar P&P Mill Sukhona P&P Mill STEP Project Mayak⚫ Mari P&P Mill Famadar Kartona Limited Kama P&P Mill Solikamskbumprom Perm P&P Mill Angara Paper Kraslesinvest Ust-Ilimsk (ILIM Group) Bratsk (ILIM Group) Selenginsk Pulp & Cardboard Mill Polar Star Priority Investment Projects (PIP) 13 facilities Companies carrying out modernization but not on the PIP list: 9 facilities P&PI product types Pulp (cooking) Paper Cardboard 48 #6 (2015) RUSSIAN FORESTRY Source: RAO Bumprom 2014 7.2 Till 2020 +3.9 P&PI product types Investment in P&PI, billions of rubles 2014 Till 2020 11.8 26.3 4.9 +1.9 Raw timber consumption, millions of m³ 115 +40 3.1 +3.4 New jobs, thousands 720 +4.5 25 production capacities output 20 innovative Omoderate 15 O inertial 25,5 25 consumption innovative 20,0 20 18,2 moderate O18,8 inertial 16,0 15 13,0 O14,7 14,2 20 O 11,7 9,6 10 7,7 9,0 10 8,3 ○ 9,8 10 7,7 7,4 7,6 7,6 7,8 8,2 8,4 8,0 5 10,6 12,5 8,3 10,2 7,5 7,8 8,0 8,6 7,3 7,5 7,6 7,5 6,7 7,4 7,4 5 6,2 8,6 8,7 8,8 9,0 9,1 9,4 9,6 11,2 13,9 16,8 22,1 0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: RAO Bumprom 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: RAO Bumprom RUSSIAN #6 (2015) 49 FORESTRY
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