Investor Update
Tsimiroro NPV Projection
MADAGASCAR OIL
Increase from 2010 CPR based on resource volume projected by Netherland Sewell
Current case Brent price based on market projections increases from midpoint of $70 to
midpoint of $80 Brent with a new low of $60 and a high of $100
■ Mean Expected Value (EV) represents the best estimate probability of resource value at a 10%
discount rate
■ CPR assumption is 70% recovery of Oil in place; Model ranges from 50%-80% (Kern River at
80%)
Assumes 29% discount to Brent and 22% of production used for fuel
P10
P50
P90
Mean EV
US$ mm
US$ mm
US$ mm
US$ mm
Expected value of Contingent resources
2010 MOIL CPR 960 MM bbls @$70 Brent
$ (412)
$ 804
$2,764
CPR case at 1.7 B bbls @ $70 Brent
Current case 1.7 B bbls @ $80 Brent
$ 731
$ 3,164
$6,667
$ 1,024
$3,500
$2,500
$6,500
$ 11,600
$ 6,748
14 May 2012
Investor Update
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