Investor Presentaiton
RBA tightening cycle to continue.
Labour market remains key risk to policy.
CPI inflation (%)
%
Core CPI, %qtr
Job vacancies (% of labour force) and
Unemployment rate (%)
Core CPI, avg RBA %yr
7
9816543210
-1
Sep-06
Sep-10
Sources: ABS, RBA, Westpac Economics
Wages (%)
ann%
5
4
Headline CPI %yr
Westpac f'casts to
Dec -23
Sep-14
Sep-18
Westpac f'casts
to Dec-23
RBA's
3
target: >3%
ann%
Economics
1896543210
%
3.5
3.0
Vacancies* (ABS survey), Ihs
-Unemployment rate, rhs
%^
-3
^ scale
reversed
2.5
13
2.0
1.5
59
7
1.0
9
0.5
ABS survey suspended between May '08 & Nov '09
11
-1
0.0
Sep-22
Mar-89
Mar-97
Mar-05
Mar-13
Mar-21
Sources: ABS, Westpac Economics
Dwelling & energy prices
(% contribution to CPI)
%yr
■Auto fuel
8
Electricity & gas
6
■Dwellings & rent
■Household goods
st
4
■Household services
2
Australia's household debt
servicing ratio² (%)
terminal
Westpac
f'casts
22
%
%
22
20
Westpac fcasts cash rate:
to Dec-23
4.5%
22
22
20
4.0%
188
18
3.85%
16
16
14
12
10
14
2
0
12
1
1
-2
T
10
Jun-97 Jun-02 Jun-07 Jun-12 Jun-17 Jun-22
Sources: ABS, Westpac Economics
Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24
Sources: ABS, Westpac Economics
Sep-02 Sep-07 Sep-12 Sep-17 Sep-22
Sources: RBA, ABS, Westpac Economics
1 'G7' is GDP-weighted avg of US, EU, Japan, UK and Canada. Based on 1yr ahead expectations where available. 2 Mortgage repayments, owner occupied loans as % of household disposable income of owner
occupiers.
111
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