Expected Q4 2009 Financial Performance
Georgia's Economy: An Open Window on Opportunity
Georgia has a good opportunity to solidify its liberal economic system and
embark on increasingly rapid, long-term sustainable growth
War and global crisis brought growth to a sharp halt in 2008, but the episode looks past
War and the ensuing domestic political crisis look to have passed
Saakashvili and government are again focusing on their domestic agenda
International aid package of $4.5bn over 3 years (12% of GDP pa) helped stabilize the economy - and
see it through the concurrent global financial crisis
The IFI financing (into 2011) matches the political cycle to offer a wide window
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Presidential elections due in Jan 2013, parliamentary in 2012. Saakashvili cannot run again
The key economic challenge? To fund and grow out of the big 12% of GDP CA deficit
Need to secure sustained strong FDI to fund deficit and finance investment
Grow exports
Manage inflows and build on the already sizeable fx reserve cushion
Will she succeed? The opportunity is clear:
Strong EM outlook with low rates
The chance of 3 years of political stability
A remarkably liberal tax & legal framework
A strategic position in a neighborhood full of opportunity as well as risk - Turkey, Black Sea &
Central Asia balance Russian risk
Lobko
BANK OF GEORGIA
www.bog.ge/ir
January 2010
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