Alberta Economic Forecast

Q2 Update Assumptions (1) Appendix Actual Budget Q2 Forecast Budget 2016 Targets Fiscal Year (Apr- Mar 31) 2015-16 2016-17 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 WTI Oil (US$/bbl) 45 42 45 54 64 Light-Heavy Differential 13.4 15.2 14.3 17.5 18.5 (US$/bbl) Natural Gas (CDN$/GJ) 2.21 2.4 2.1 2.8 3 Exchange Rate 76.3 73.5 77 75.5 77.5 (US/CDN$) Calendar year 2015 A 2016B 2016F 2017T 2018T Real GDP Growth (%) -3.6 -1.4 -2.8 1.9 2.8 Employment Growth (%) 1.2 -1.7 -1.7 0.9 2.1 6 Unemployment Rate (%) (1) A Actual, B=Budget, T=Target, F= Q2 Forecast. Source: Statistics Canada, Alberta Energy, Alberta Treasury Board and Finance 8 8 7.5 6.5 Alberta 21

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