Investor Presentaiton
mn bpd
2.0
1.5
1.0
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3.0
2.5
Jun-11
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Oil production trends
UAE Economic Update
Highlights
• The UAE's real GDP growth reached 4.4% in 2012 according to latest data
from the National Bureau of Statistics
• The main driver of growth last year was the oil sector, which expanded
6.3%; non-oil GDP grew 3.5%, up from 2.6% in 2011, driven mainly by service
sector growth
⚫ The non-oil private sector continued to expand at a steady pace in Q3
2013, with the PMI reading for September coming in at 56.6; employment, staff
costs and input prices continue to rise, but a competitive environment has meant
output costs have been contained
• 4.4% growth is forecasted for 2013, on the back of higher than expected oil
production year-to-date; Growth is also expected to be driven by the services
sectors as real estate continues to recover, and tourism growth supports trade
and associated sectors
• Inflation has averaged under 1% in the year to August. The 2013 forecast for
average CPI is 1.5% before rising to 3% in 2014
Real GDP Growth Forecasts
2013
2014
2008 2009 2010
2011 2012
F
F
UAE
UK
Eurozone
India
US
China
3.2% (2.4%) 1.7% 3.9% 4.4% 4.4% 4.1%
(1.1%) (4.9%) 1.7% 1.1% 0.2% 1.0% 1.5%
0.4% (4.1%) 2.0% 1.6%
8.2% 6.4% 4.0% 3.0% 0.7% 0.5%
(0.3%) (3.5%) 2.5% 1.8% 2.8% 2.0% 3.0%
9.6% 9.2% 10.4% 9.3% 7.8% 7.5% 7.0%
(1.1%) (6.3%) 4.7% (0.6%) 2.0% 2.0%
1.8% (0.9%) 14.9% 5.3% 1.3% 2.6%
Hong Kong 2.1% (2.5%) 6.8% 4.9% 1.5% 3.0%
Source: Global Insight, Emirates NBD forecasts, Bloomberg
(0.7%) (0.5%)
0.5%
1.8%
2.5%
3.6%
3.5%
Japan
Singapore
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13°
Apr-13
Jun-13
Aug-13
22088420
USD per barrel
UAE Oil Production (Ihs)
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research
OPEC oil price (rhs)
Source: HSBC, Markit
40
40
Jan-10
Mar-10
45
bps
60
50
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
55
59
Jan-11
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
60
UAE PMI - Private Sector Expansion Trends
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
4
Emirates NBDView entire presentation