SEB Nordic Outlook

34 Updated macro scenarios and scenario probability weightings led to a marginal increase of ECL allowances in Q3 Three scenarios for ECL modelling GDP growth assumptions Q3 2021 (Q2 2021) Positive 20% (23%) probability Base -60% (60%) probability Negative - 20% (17%) probability 6.9% 5.7% 5.1% 5.4% 5.1% 4.6% 4.0% 3.9% 4.1% 3.6% 2.8%2.8% 2.3% 2.3% 1.2% 0.9% 1.9% 1.8% 2021 2022 2023 The positive scenario assumes that the power of economic stimulus measures is underestimated and economic growth is driven by a combination of pent-up consumption needs and highly elevated household savings, triggering broad-based capital spending. • 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 OECD Sweden The base scenario assumes a balanced economic recovery with only marginal revisions compared to the previous quarter despite new COVID-19 waves. The negative scenario reflects the risk that the impact of the mass vaccinations are overestimated. Vaccine-resistant mutations and new waves of infection due to the slow pace of vaccinations in poor countries may contribute to delayed economic recovery. Inflation and failures linked to central bank exit strategies are starting to play a larger role among downside risks. Probability-weighted ECL allowances: SEK 9.4bn 100% probability of positive scenario: -2% ECL allowances 100% probability of negative scenario: +3% ECL allowances Source: SEB Economic Research, Nordic Outlook August 2021. SEB

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