Investor Presentaiton
Counter Cyclical Fiscal Policy
Prudent macroeconomic policies provided SA with space for countercyclical fiscal policy
Increase debt issuance post 2008 due to countercyclical policy stance
Fiscal Priorities:
Maintaining the expenditure ceiling
Reducing the budget deficit
•
As economy begins to grow and expenditure restraint is maintained, the deficit is projected to narrow from 4.1
per cent in the 2014/15 fiscal year to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2017/18
•
Result is that net debt is projected to stabilise at 45.9 per cent of GDP in 2017/18
•
Growth in 2014/15 expected to be 1.4% this year (revised down from 2.9%) due to work stoppages, labor disputes,
electricity constraints and other supply side shocks
It is expected to pick up to 3.0% in 2017 as the global outlook improves, confidence returns to the economy as constraints
are relieved
Budget Balance & Debt as a percentage of GDP
Fiscal Year
2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18
Percentage Change
Actual
Estimates
Medium Term Estimates
Real GDP Growth
4.6%
2.5%
-0.9%
3.5%
3.3%
2.2%
2.0%
1.4%
2.5%
2.8%
3.0%
Buget Balance % of GDP
1.0%
-1.0%
-6.6%
-4.8%
-3.7%
-4.3%
-3.9%
-4.1%
-3.6%
-2.6%
-2.5%
Debt as % of GDP
23.3%
22.9%
27.4%
29.8%
33.2%
36.9%
39.7%
42.8%
42.8%
45.4%
45.9%
Source: National Treasury
national treasury
Department:
National Treasury
REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICAView entire presentation