Investor Presentaiton
Raising the Stakes in Jammu and Kashmir
Crisis Group Asia Report N°310, 5 August 2020
Page 15
men have suddenly disappeared from their villages and re-emerged within days on
social media channels, posting photographs and videos of themselves with guns in
hand. 79
Local police sources estimate that active militants number only in the low hundreds
but acknowledge that young Kashmiris, mostly from the restive southern regions, con-
tinue joining armed groups. 80 Most survive for only a few months before they are
killed by security forces. The short life expectancy of recruits does not appear to deter
others, including many well-educated young men with promising career prospects.³
Official Indian sources point to a slowdown in local recruitment in the first half of
2020-an almost 50 per cent drop compared to the same period in 2019. According
to the state's police chief, of the 67 Kashmiri youths known to have joined militant
outfits in this period, 24 were killed and twelve arrested. 82 These statistics, however,
fail to reflect the fact that recruitment spiked in the last three months of that period:
the overwhelming majority of recruits mentioned above joined between April and
June. 83 Many observers believe this trend is likely to gather steam in reaction to New
Delhi's denial of civil and political rights.84 "My feeling is that things will explode",
said a former police officer. 85
In justifying Article 370's revocation, the BJP government argued that the move
would "prevent terrorism" and "restore Kashmiri youth's faith in the Indian state”,
yet thus far little suggests it will do either.86 One year later, the number of militancy-
related incidents remains more or less constant. The state witnessed 57 encounters
between militants and security forces in the first six months of 2020, with 143 mili-
tants killed; 120 were killed in 66 encounters during the same period in 2019.87 Ac-
cording to an internal intelligence agency report, 95 per cent of the militants killed
from January to mid-June were locals. 88 The number of encounters has dramatically
increased since early April 2020. Militants have attacked security installations with
grenades and assassinated pro-Indian politicians. On 8 July 2020, they shot dead a
BJP leader in northern Kashmir's Bandipora district, highlighting that pro-India
79 Such posts disappeared from circulation after August 2019, following an intensification of counter-
insurgency operations.
80 Police sources claimed that 191 Kashmiri youth had joined militant outfits in 2018, an increase
from 126 in 2017. Crisis Group interview, Srinagar, July 2019. See also "191 Kashmiri youth joined
militancy in 2018", The Economic Times, 4 February 2019.
81 Joanna Slater, "From scholars into militants: educated Kashmiri youths are joining an anti-India
insurgency", The Washington Post, 28 March 2019.
82
"Is Kashmir militancy beginning to ebb? Last decade trend shows it could be another false
dawn",
The Print, 6 July 2020.
83 "Kashmir: big spike in local terror recruitment even as forces killed top commanders”, India
Today, 8 June 2020.
84
Crisis Group interviews, Srinagar, Kulgam, Pulwama, Sopore, Anantnag, January-July 2020.
"Renewed militancy heats up Kashmir summer", Kashmir Observer, 21 June 2020.
85
5 "Is this the end of militancy in South Kashmir? A spate of new recruits suggests it is not", Scroll,
1 July 2020.
86 "PM Narendra Modi's address to the nation: abrogation of Article 370 in J&K", Rajya Sahba TV,
8 August 2019.
87
Data calculated by Crisis Group from "Annual Human Rights Review 2019", Jammu and Kashmir
Coalition of Civil Society, 31 December 2019.
88 Reviewed by Crisis Group.View entire presentation