Well-Diversified and Profitable Business
Canadian Housing Market
Moderation of price and volume
Significant Moderation in Price Growth*
Aggregate Composite MLS Home Price
25
Index Y/Y Percentage Change
20
15
Volume of Home Sales Near 10-Year Average*
50
45
40
10
Units, 000s
Monthly home sales
10
5
0
-5
-10
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, CREA.
*Actual not seasonally adjusted
Canada's Five Largest Metropolitan Areas*
10
MLS Home Price Index Benchmark
8
Price Y/Y Percentage Change
6
6.37
4
2
3.18
0
-2
-4
Average
-1.52
-6
-8
-8.52
-10
GTA
GVA
35
30
25
20
10-year monthly moving avg.
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, CREA.
*Seasonally adjusted
Meaningful Decline in Share of Mortgages
going to highly Indebted Households
25
% Share of new mortgages with a loan-to-income
ratio greater than 450%
20
15
-4.01
10
-4.60
Montreal Calgary
Edmonton
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, CREA.
*Actual not seasonally adjusted
5
0
Mortgage
insurance
rules
tightened
Guideline
B-20
revised
Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16
High-ratio mortgages
Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18
Low-ratio mortgages
Total mortgages
Source: Bank of Canada
1 Sources for charts and table: Bank of Canada Financial System Review 2019 (Data as of December 31, 2018); CREA; MLS Home Price Index growth rates reported as non seasonally-adjusted y/y (Data as of April 2019)
Scotiabank®
41View entire presentation