GGU Energy and Water Utilities Investment Overview
Electricity market update
Current installed capacity by types, MW
HPP More than 70 HPPs are under operation currently, with 3,164MW of
total installed capacity. 7 conventional dam HPPs make up 68% of
installed capacity. Run-of-river plants make up the rest.
TPP - On top of supporting the security of supply, natural gas-fired plants
also fill winter deficits. There are six TPPs, with installed capacity of
925MW. 3 TPPs have a remaining average lifetime of 12 years and
will need to be replaced in the nearest future.
Wind
1%
TPP's
22%
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
HPP's
77%
Source: Galt & Taggart Research
Electricity import-export balance
Electricity supply and consumption
Forecasted consumption
Source: ESCO
23,000 MW
Forecast
MW
1,400
21,000
1,200
19,000
1,000
17,000
1,5%
Consumption, 5
800
15,000
600
13,000
400
200
11,000
0
9,000
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
TPPS
HPPS
Imports
Internal Demand
Demand on electricity in Georgia peaks in winter and the shortage that the
country faces is filled by direct imports. Up to 25% of Georgia's electricity
needs are imported, with up to 20% natural gas and the rest - direct electricity
imports. Supply peaks in summer and the surplus is exported to neighboring
countries.
Electricity exports and prices, 2011-2017
Consumptions 5%
Consumption growth is forecasted to be at 5% CAGR in coming 15 years. If
the anticipated growth is realized and current supply does not get upgraded,
Georgia will have a deficit of 9.1 tWh (more than 75% of current
consumption) left to fill creating an ample room for generation resource
development.
Gross electricity demand in Turkey, 2000-2030
Source: Turkish market outlook
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
9.1
TWh
Source: Galt & Taggart Research
Source: ESCO, Geostat, EPIAS
US$ '000
TWh
MW
900
60,000
1,000
700
800
900
50,000
600
700
800
219
600
40,000
500
500
700
30,000
400
600
400
300
20,000
500
200
79
300
10,000
0
419
236
100
400
294
200
712
149
0
2013
2014
2015
2016
1H17
300
100
Import
Export
IM, US $'000
EX, US $'000
200
449
450
309
100
240
265
282
Favorable weather conditions in 2017 resulted in excess power generation and
increase in the amount of exported electricity. Notably, the electricity trade
balance in US$ terms remains negative. GGU exported electricity to Turkey
for the first time throughout its operations.
0
2011
2012
2013 2014 2015
2016 1H17
■Export to other countries, GHS)
■Export to Turkey, GWh (LHS)
GGU
October 2017
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Realized Demand
Demand projection (MENR Base scenario)
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