Kinnevik Results Presentation Deck slide image

Kinnevik Results Presentation Deck

Intro Net Asset Value Note 4 Financial Assets Accounted at Fair Value Through Profit & Loss OUR FRAMEWORK AND PRINCIPLES In assessing the fair value of our unlisted investments, we apply IFRS 13 and the International Private Equity and Venture Capital Valuation Guidelines, whereunder we make a collective assessment to establish the valuation methods and points of reference that are suitable and rel- evant in determining the fair value of each of our unlisted investments. Valuations in recent transactions are not applied as a valuation method, but typically provides important points of reference for our valuations. When applicable, consideration is taken to preferential rights such as liquidation preferences to proceeds in a sale or listing of a business. Valuation methods include revenue, GMV, and profit multiples, with consideration to differences in size, growth, profitability and cost of equity capital. We also consider the strength of a company's financial position, cash runway, and the funding environment. The valuation process is led independently from the investment team. Accuracy and reliability of financial information is ensured through con- tinuous contacts with investee management teams and regular reviews of their financial and operational reporting. Information and opinions on applicable valuation methods are obtained periodically from investment managers and well-renowned investment banks and audit firms. The val- uations are approved by Kinnevik's CFO and CEO after which a proposal is presented and discussed with the Audit & Sustainability Committee and Kinnevik's external auditors. After their scrutiny and potential adjustments, the valuations are approved by the Audit & Sustainability Committee and included in Kinnevik's financial reports. When establishing the fair value of other financial instruments, meth- ods assumed to provide the best estimation of fair value are used. For assets and liabilities maturing within one year, a nominal value adjusted for interest payments and premiums is assumed to provide a good approximation of fair value. Information in this note is provided per class of financial instruments that are valued at fair value in the balance sheet, distributed in the levels stated below: KINNEVIK Interim Report Q4 2022 Portfolio Overview Category • Value-Based Care • Virtual Care • Platforms & Marketplaces • Software • Consumer Finance Sustainability 2022 Kinnevik Unlisted Investee Averages Revenue Growth +50-70% +200-220% +10-20%/ +110-130% +135-155% +20-40% 2022 Gross Margin 5-15% 40-60% 30-40% / 45-60% 50-70% 40-60% Note: Kinnevik unlisted investee averages are weighted by fair value as at 31 December 2022. Financial Statements NTM EV/Revenue Level 1: Fair value established based on listed prices in an active market for the same instrument. Level 2: Fair value established based on valuation techniques with observable market data, either directly (as a price) or indirectly (derived from a price) and not included in Level 1. Level 3: Fair value established using valuation techniques, with sig- nificant input from data that is not observable in the market. For companies that are valued based on multiples, an increase in the multiple by 10% would have increased the assessed fair value by SEK 2,088m. Similarly, a decrease in the multiple by 10% would have decreased the assessed fair value by SEK 1,949m. A NEW VALUATION ENVIRONMENT In the fourth quarter of 2022, the development of public comparable valuation multiples for our unlisted investments were fairly dispersed. Valuation levels in value-based care were volatile, driven by a flurry of announced or rumoured transactions in our peer group, and e-commerce multiples rerated materially after having contracted through the first three quarters of 2022. Changing expectations on inflation and interest rates continue to be referenced as a significant driver of valuation multiples, in particular for companies such as ours where cash flow profitability can still be some years out. Heading into 2023, the force increasingly driving changes may be the extent to which a contracting business cycle affects 3.0-4.0x 0.8-1.5x / 4.5-5.5x 8.0-10.0x 10.0-20.0x 4.0-6.0x 2022 Revenue Growth +40% +30% +15% / 30% +30% Flat Other Peer Group Averages 2022 Gross Margin 25% 45% 40% / 55% 75% 45% NTM EV/Revenue 2.5x 1.5x 1.0x/3.0x 5.0x 5.5x the demand for our companies' and their public comparables' products and services. Many of our investees are taking measures to reduce burn, improve profitability, and prolong cash runways. At the expense of these measures, our expectations on our investees revenues in 2023 have come down by around 15 percent compared to our estimates at the end of the previous quarter. On average, the net effect of this trade-off bears a negative short-term impact on our assessed valuations this quarter. The revised expectations means, however, that our assessed valuations are rebased to reflect a more recessionary environment. Investment activity in private venture and growth markets has slowed down materially relative to the hectic 2021, and the growth IPO market has effectively closed. This means fewer transactions and less price discovery occurring in private markets that could otherwise aid the cali- bration of our valuations, and that public market comparable companies become the singular valuation benchmark available. As the high-growth and often cash-consuming financial profile that many of our early-stage investee companies exhibit tend to lack public market equivalents, this creates challenges. To corroborate our fair value assessments of our more early-stage businesses, we therefore also assess projections further out in time to confirm that the level of execution risk in each investment provides commensurate returns over this time frame from our assessed fair value as of our measurement date. The correction in valuation levels during 2022 has typically borne a 28
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