Scotiabank International Banking Overview
Canadian Housing Market
Higher interest rates and new regulations driving soft landing
• Significant moderation in price growth since 2017 (top right chart)..
。 The composite national MLS Home Price Index rose 0.8% Y/Y, with gains
concentrated in lower-cost apartments and townhomes. Average price fell
5.5% Y/Y
。 Three of Canada's five largest cities experienced year-over-year price
declines (Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton)
Resale volumes down 4% Y/Y (table below)
。 The sales-to-new listings ratio rose to 56.7% in the month, a level
consistent with balanced demand-supply conditions
Greater Toronto Market: Average home price increased 2.7% from a
year ago. Resale volumes have moderated and are below 10-year
average (lower right chart)
• Greater Vancouver Market: Average home price fell 4.5% from a year
ago-led by weakness in the single-family home segment—but home
purchases climbed 1.2%
Price Growth by Dwelling Type²
25
20
15
10
Apartment
5
Single-
Family
Townhome
0
-5 MLS Home Price
Index, aggregate, y/y
% change
-10
16
17
18
19
Toronto & Vancouver Home Sales2
Canada²
Sales (% change)
New listings (% change)
Average price (% change)
MLS HPI (% change)**
Sales-to-new listing ratio (level)*
Months inventory (level)*
*Seasonally adjusted **Not seasonally adjusted
140
home sales, 000s of
units, annualized
Jan-19 Dec-18 Jan-19
120
Greater
Toronto
m/m*
m/m*
y/y
100
3.6
-2.0
-4.0
1.0
-0.5
8.0
180
80
-2.9
-1.4
-5.5
-0.5
-0.3
0.8
60
60
Jan-19
Dec-18
Jan-18
Greater
Vancouver
56.7
55.3
64.2
40
40
5.3
5.5
4.9
20
20
1 Sales and listings figures reported in seasonally-adjusted m/m terms, while MLS HPI growth rates reported as non seasonally-adjusted y/y
2 Sources for charts and table: Scotiabank Economics, CREA
0
11
12
13
14
15
Actual
10-Year Avg.
16 17 18
Scotiabank®
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