Investor Presentaiton
February 2022
Despite economic downturn, consumer demand remains firm
Comments
Real wages growth (%) and avg monthly nominal wages (UAH)
Over recent years, consumer demand was consistently
driven by a number of factors, including steady rise in real
wages, improving consumer sentiments (before Q1
2020), growing personal money remittances
20%
20,000
17,453 18,000
15%
11.9%
16,000
Real wages growth was mainly resilient reflecting post-
pandemic recovery and reached 11.9% y-o-y in December
2021, even though the growth pace has slowed (e.g. 19.7%
in April 2021) due to rising inflation
Strong real and nominal wages growth had a positive
impact on the retail trade as well: the turnover increased
by 10.7% in 2021
Final private consumption grew by 9.0% and 17.4% y-o-y
in Q3 2021 and Q2 2021, respectively, following a 10.0% y-o-
y decline in Q2 2020
Private consumption and consumer sentiments evolution
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Source State Statistics Service of Ukraine
Retail trade growth (y-o-y)¹, %
10%
5%
0%
(5%)
(10%)
14,000
12,000
10,000
Real wages index
Average
monthly nominal wage, UAH
8,000
6,000
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
100
97.5
17.4%
20%
82.4
16%
12.2% 11.7%
12.9%
80
14%
59.4 60.3
62.2
65.1 65.9 69.1 10%
12%
10.6%
60 50.6
9.0%
6.9%
5.3% 2.7%
5.3% 4.4%
10%
8.8%
0%
40
8%
(1.8%)
(10)%
6%
20
(10.0%)
4%
0
(20)%
2%
Q1'16
Q2'16
Q3'16
Q4'16
Q1'17
Q2'17
Q3'17
Q4'17
Q1'18
Q2'18
Q3'18
Q4'18
Q1'19
Q2'19
Q3'19
Q4'19
Q1'20
Q2'20
Q3'20
Q4'20
Q1'21
Q2'21
Q3'21
0%
5.5%
10.3%
13.5%
B.1%
8.4%
Consumer sentiments index, eop (lhs)
Private consumption growth y-o-y, % (rhs)
Source GFK, State Statistics Service of Ukraine
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Source State Statistics Service of Ukraine
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Note 1 To the corresponding period of the previous year on a cumulative basis
Jun-21
Sep-21
12.2%
Dec-21
.10.7%
BA
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