Investor Presentaiton
Stabilizing Market Environment with Positive Outlook for 2019
Dynamics of diesel retail price[1] and diesel export net-back
(RUB/litre)
50
45
40
40
30
30
35
35
25
20
GGlobaltruck
15
Jun 16
Oct 16
Feb 17
Jun 17
Average diesel retail price in Russia
Oct 17
Feb 18
Jun 18
Oct 18
Feb 19
Diesel export net-back
Growing domestic diesel prices created additional impact on economics of entire transportation market in Russia, but for 2019 the tariff growth is expected to be
above the diesel price growth. On the back of higher discounts in March 2019 the actual diesel prices paid by the Company went down to the level of November
2018
■ To stabilize the market, the government introduced additional regulatory measures to keep the fuel prices in check - all major fuel refiners agreed on a temporary
price freeze. As the result fuel prices are not expected to grow above inflation rate throughout 2019
■ Current balance of supply and demand for FTL transportation services does not allow for an immediate transfer of fuel price increases onto the clients through
tariff growth, however, we expect margins and returns to gradually recover in mid-term through capacity optimization resulting in further tariff increases and
possible reversal of macroeconomic conditions
■ We maintain positive outlook for 2019, as GT will aim to capitalize on its strategic initiatives, such as focus on higher tariff yielding international routes, and China
in particular, light asset model and freight forwarding, as well as expanding the highly marginal Cargo Pipeline
Source: Petroplus, Bloomberg
Notes: [1] Average retail diesel price in Russia, based on Petroplus survey of 13,000 fuel stations in Russia.
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