Investor Presentaiton
Indonesia
GDP Growth
Strong GDP Growth'
%yoy
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
2.97
-0.74
-2.19
-3.49
II III IV I
2020
2021
8.80
7.40
6.10
4.00
• National economic improvements observed since the third quarter of 2020 have
persisted, with data published by BPS-Statistics Indonesia confirming a shallower -
0.74% (yoy) contraction in the first quarter of 2021 compared with -2.19% (yoy) in the
fourth quarter of 2020. Domestic economic recovery momentum is building on the
back of rapid external sector gains in response to the stronger global economic recovery
and ongoing acceleration of fiscal stimuli.
• Economic gains in Indonesia have been recorded across nearly all GDP components on
the expenditure side and economic sectors. Exports expanded for the first time since
the Covid-19 pandemic befell Indonesia primarily driven by demand in Indonesia's main
trading partners, namely China and the United States. Meanwhile, positive external
sector developments and stronger investment performance edged up import growth.
Government consumption accelerated in line with the realisation of fiscal stimuli in the
form of procurement, capital spending and social assistance disbursements. Investment
is also showing signs of improvement, recording a shallower -0.23% (yoy) contraction
compared with -6.15% (yoy) in the previous period. On the other hand, consumption in
the household sector and non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH) remains
subdued respectively given the mobility restrictions ongoing in several regions. By
sector, most economic sectors are seeing improvements, led by Information and
Communication. Water Supply as well as Health Services.
• 2021 Economic recovery will be strengthen and supported by global economic recovery.
fiscal and monetary stimuli, implementation of the vaccination program, coupled with
the disciplined application of Covid-19 protocols, and credit and bank financing
support. Macroeconomic and financial system stability remains solid.
Growth Prospect
-4.0
-6.0
2016
||||||IVI II III IV I
2017
III IV I II III IV I
2018
2019
Favourable GDP Growth Compared to Peers²
%yoy
10.00
5.00
0.00
-5.00
Bulgaria
-Indonesia
Colombia
Philippines
India
-10.00
-15.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021"
1. Source: Central Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia (BPS), **Including non-profit household
consumption
2. Source: World Economic Outlook Database-October 2020;* indicates estimated figure
Institutions
2021 GDP
growth (% YoY)
2021 Budget
5.0
Bank Indonesia
4.1-5.1
IMF (WEO, Apr 2021)
4.3
World Bank (Global Economic Prospects, Jan 2021)
4.4
ADB (ADO, Apr 2021)
4.5
Consensus Forecast (Apr 2021)
4.4
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