3Q 2020 Investor Presentation
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Global trailing twelve month speculative-grade default rate at 6.4% as of September 30, 2020; expected to increase to
7.2% by December 2020 and peak at 8.1% by March 2021, before declining to 6.3% by September 2021
1. Moody's rated corporate global speculative grade default historical average of 4.1% from 1983 through September 30,2020. 2020 forecast for TTM ended December 31, 2020 and March 31, 2021 from Moody's Investor Service
"October 2020 Default Report", published November 10, 2020.
2. Covenant data for European bonds represent a three quarter rolling average, North American loans and bonds represent a two quarter rolling and a three month rolling average, respectively.
Source: Moody's Investors Service.
MOODY'S
2018
2019
3Q20
2020F
2012
2013
2014
2015
3Q 2020 Investor Presentation - November 11, 2020
24
2016
2017
-U.S. Loans
-U.S. Bonds European Bonds
Weakening
5.0
4.51x
4.5
4.22x
4.1% global
4.0
3.91x
10%
historic average¹
3.5
7%
5%
3.0
2.5
2.0
Improving
Default Rate Forecast Reflects COVID-19 Impacts;
Expected to Peak in 1Q 2021
Default Rates for Speculative-Grade
Corporate Rated Issuance¹
-Global -U.S. Europe
Speculative-Grade Covenant Quality Indicators²
2018
2019
2Q20View entire presentation