Analysis of Global Power Market
Analysis of Macro Economy in China
Population and Urbanisation Rate
Urbanisation Rate and Population*, China,
2013-2023E
Million
%
1,500
1,374.7
1,395.4
1,414.7
1,420.9
90
1,360.7 1,367.9 1,382.7 1,390.1
1,403.4 1,409.3
1,419.5
1,200
900
T
80
629.6 618.7 603.5 589.7 576.6 564.0 552.1 539.3 526.2 512.9 498.4
70
64.9
63.9
62.8
60.7
61.7
59.6
58.5
600
57.3
56.1
54.8
53.7
300
731.1 749.2 771.2 793.0 813.5 831.4 851.3 870.0 888.5 906.6 922.5
00
60
50
50
40
30
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E
Urbanization Rate
Rural Population
Urban Population
*Urbanisation rate refers to the percentage of urban resident population
(E) over total population
FROST
Highlights
➤ Total population of China increased from
1,360.7 million in 2013 to 1,395.4 million in
2018, representing a CAGR of 0.5%, and is
expected to increase further to 1,420.9 million
in 2023, representing a CAGR of 0.3% from
2018 to 2023. The high child-care and
education cost and the decrease in number of
women of child-bearing age lead to a lower
population growth in the next five years.
➤ As urbanisation is one of the strategic focus of
the government, China is in the stage of rapid
development of urbanisation. In 2018, the
urbanisation rate hit 59.6% and is expected to
reach 64.9% by 2023. Chinese government
targets to increase the urbanisation rate
further to 70% by 2030. Further urbanisation
process will push up electricity consumption
per capita and moderate population growth
will enlarge the electricity user base., which
will stimulate the growth in power demand.
SULLIVAN
Source: IMF, NBS, Frost & Sullivan
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