Investor Presentaiton

Macroeconomic situation and outlook Consumers under constant, broadening pressure Unemployment rate at cyclical bottoms 12% 10 2002234 -10 Source: GUS -50 Jan-16 Sep-16 May-17 Jan-18 Sep-18 May-19 Jan-20 Sep-20 May-21 Jan-22 Self-assessed household financial situation Consumer Confidence Bad consumer moods have finally arrived in the real spending data. Consumers are going to crack more under the spell of higher prices, negative real wages growth, uncertainty and tightened monetary policy. GDP path and forecast for Poland (% YoY) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Source: GUS 0% Jan-16 Sep-16 May-17 Jan-18 Sep-18 May-19 Jan-20 Unemployment rate Sep-20 May-21 Jan-22 As labour market has typically some inertia, the fall of GDP growth momentum has not yet been seen. However, it is just a matter of time for Poland before unemployment rate starts to rise. Inflation: off 2.5% NBP target, central bank in rate hike cycle 12 9 4.7 4.2 5.4 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.5 5.1 5.5 5.4 4.6 3.7 6 3.3 3.5 2.8 2.9 2.6 3- 0 -3 -6 Source: GUS -9 11.3 8.5 7.6 6.7 5.5 3.1 1.1 -0.6 -2.1 -7.9 16% 14% Source: NBP, GUS 12% 10% 8% 6% h 4% 2% mBank's 0% forecast -2% 2015 2016 Repo rate 2017 2018 Repo rate forecast 2019 CPI inflation CPI forecast 2020 2021 2022 Core inflation Core CPI forecast 2023 Inflation is yet to reach the top at the start of 2023 due to pending energy price increases. However, inflation momentum is falling. Therefore, the peak in rates is coming closer and ~7% seems to be still a reasonable ceiling to rely on. Q1/16 Q3/16 Q1/17 Q3/17 Q1/18 Q3/18 Q1/19 Q3/19 Q1/20 Q3/20 Q1/21 Q3/21 Q1/22 Q3/22 Investment Net exports Consumption Inventories GDP YoY (%) Brilliant start of the year keeps average 2022 GDP numbers high (at the level of 4.6%). Mind the falling trajectory, though. There are no obvious turnaround factors in sight and 2023 cyclical picture is much gloomier. Covered Bonds Investor Presentation 37

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