Portfolio and Acquisitions Summary 2019
Private early
stage portfolio
Renewable energy business overview
Investment rationale
■ Growing electricity market as supply lags behind the increasing demand, creating opportunities.
■ Underutilized energy resources - availability of economically feasible hydro and wind projects.
■ Cheap to develop - up to US$1.5min for 1MW hydro and up to US$1.4mln for wind development
on average with 1.5x higher capacity factors compared to Europe over the last decade.
Value creation potential
Opportunity to establish a renewable energy platform with up to 440 MW operating capacity over
the medium-term, targeting to capture approximately one third of deregulated electricity market.
Energy consumption is expected to grow at least by CAGR 5% over the next 10-15 years on the
back of following key drivers:
о Rapid tourism growth combined with high GDP growth with pronounced growth in electricity-
heavy sectors.
о
о
Increasing penetration of domestic appliances, with accelerating imports of electricity-intensive
conventional domestic devices.
Increasing number of installed residential and industrial air conditioning systems on the back
of decreasing unit prices, expected to result in at least 5x growth in penetration level over the
next decade.
Actual and forecasted consumption
Energy consumption has grown at 5.3% CAGR in last 10 years and is expected to further
grow at least by CAGR 5% over the next 15 years
Electricity supply and consumption, 2019
GEORGIA
CAPITAL
1,500
Deficit (4 months)
1,000
500
0
Deficit (6 months)
Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19
Source: ESCO
Hydros&Wind
TPPS
Imports
Consumption
Electricity deficit
during July-April
22% of total
consumption
produced by gas-
fired TPPS, 13% -
imported
Low base and high CDD¹ point towards 5x increase in AC penetration by 2030
Air conditioners are the most electricity-intensive conventional domestic devices and increasing
penetration of ACs quickly eats away the surplus electricity on the market in the summer months
GWh
23,000
18,000
13,000
Consumption CAGR
2009-2019: 5.3%
8,000
3,000
2009
Consumption CAGR
2019-2030: 5%
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
2021
2023
Forecasted generation Hydros & Wind
Actual generation Hydros & Wind
2025 2027
Forecasted consumption
Actual consumption
2029
Growth of internal consumption: 7.7% in 2017, 6.1% in 2018 and 1.5% in 2019
Anticipated deficit of at least 6.4 TWh by 2030
1,457
299
418
107
223
362
6.4 TWh
88%
47%
36%
33%
31%
10%
Cyprus
Croatia
Bulgaria
AC penetration (2018)
Italy
Spain
Georgia
Mean CDD
Source: World Bank's World Development indicators; Geostat, Galt&Taggart, Eurostat
(1) cooling degree day
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