Hawaii Visitor Industry and Public Health Update
STATE
OF
1959
HAWAI
Council on Revenues Update
In September, the Council on Revenues improved the projections for long-term growth
The Council held a virtual meeting on September 9th, 2020 to forecast revenue growth for State General Fund revenues and increased its
forecast for FY 2021 from -12% to -11.0%
Primarily due to the delay in the income tax filing deadline from April 2020 to July 2020 that resulted in a $308 million shift from fiscal year 2020 to
fiscal year 2021
■The Council lowered its forecast for FY 2022 from 12.0% to 8.5% and projects revenues will grow by 6.0% in FY 2023, 4.0% in FY 2024, and 3.0%
for FY 2025-2027
10
◉
The forecast assumes the pre-testing travel program begins in November
◉
The Council recognizes that a number of unknowns may significantly affect Hawaii's economic activity and State tax collections including the
trajectory of the virus, the availability of a vaccine, effective treatment, rapid, low-cost testing, the State and Federal government's response to
the pandemic, reopening the tourism economy and its timing, and the duration of government shutdown measures
General Fund Tax Revenue Collections & Projections
($mm)
Actual
Projected
$10,000
$9,106
$8,756
$8,419
$8,095
$8,000
$7,784
$7,142
$7,413 $7,413
$6,796
$6,853
$7,127 $7,341
$7,561
$7,788
$6,194 $6,315
$6,465
$6,000
$5,468 $5,371
$5,735
$7,142
$4,426 $4,590 $4,590
$4,973
$6,695 $5,958
$6,642
$4,202 $4,364 $4,324
$6,546 $6,743 $6,945 $7,153 $7,368
$5,845
$4,000
$2,000
COR Forecast from March 11, 2020
COR Forecast from May 28, 2020
COR Forecast from September 9, 2020
-11.0% 8.5% 6.0%
$0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Fiscal Year
3.8% 0.0% 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
-7.0% -12.0% 12.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027View entire presentation