Financial Analysis and Currency Deposits
Rising interest rates enabling faster NII growth
Immediate benefit
ECB Deposit rate
Loan repricing sensitivity
3m Euribor rate
⚫BOC business plan (Feb 2022)
Market/BOC Expectations May 2022²
BOC Base rate
Market/BOC Expectations Aug 2022³
ECB MRO rate
1.30%
1.75%
1.5%
2.0%
3.2%
2.0%
1.65%
1.00%
1.17%
1.50%
1.5%
1.0%
3.0%
0.65%
1.0%
1.36%
2.79%
1.5%
0.90%
0.76%
2.8%
0.5%
0.00%
0.5%
1.0%
-0.30%
2.6%
0.35%
0.0%
-0.40%
0.0%
-0.50%
-0.49%
2.32%
0.5%
-0.5% -0.54%.
2.4%
Flat at 2.30%
0.00%
Flat at 0%
-0.5% -0.50%*
0.0%
-1.0%
2.2%
2021A 2022 2023
2024
2025
2021A
2022
2023
2024
2025
2021A 2022
2023
2024 2025
2021A 2022 2023 2024
2025
€9.9 bn or c.44% of AIEA¹
cash balances with the ECB
% of net loans 48%
NII outlook
23%
Based on August 2022 forward curves:
⚫ NII for 2022 expected to reach c.€320 mn, reflecting higher income on liquid assets and higher loan yields from loan repricing
2023 NII up c.€100 - €120 mn yoy
15%
Assumptions include:
.
Partial pass-through to deposits (c.50% starting in 2023 on term deposits)
•
•
Gradual change in deposit mix towards term deposits (term deposits 31% of total deposits as at 30 June 2022)
Higher wholesale funding costs from 2023
1)
Average interest earning assets
2)
3)
Source for ECB Deposit rate and ECB MRO rate: Bloomberg -16/5/22, Source For 3m Euribor rate: Bloomberg - 9/5/22
Source for ECB Deposit rate and ECB MRO rate: Bloomberg -15/8/22, Source For 3m Euribor rate: Bloomberg - 3/8/22
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