Visibility to Growth and Disciplined Capital Management
Now vs. Then – A Shift In Refining Valuation
INDUSTRY/MACRO
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In the Past
Range bound industry wide EV/EBITDA multiple +/- 4.5x
Peer group fragmented with smaller scale, less efficient
refiners
U.S. importing products to meet domestic product shortage
Stock prices driven by seasonal refining trading cycles
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Higher interest rates (10-yr Treasury ~5 percent)
VALERO
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Marginal operations (+/- 85% utilization)
Third quartile operating performance impacted by M&A integration
Disadvantaged East Coast and Caribbean operations
Less disciplined M&A and capital project execution
Frequent acquisitions
Focused on volume growth
Approximately $3.5 billion annual capex
Volatile cash flow profile and lower stockholder returns
1-2 percent dividend yield ($0.32/share annually)
Approximately $5 billion of liquidity
> 570 million shares outstanding
Volatile stock price
INDUSTRY/MACRO
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New Paradigm
EV/EBITDA multiple expansion and dispersion by company
Peer group of larger scale, efficient and complex refiners
Tight global product market expected to continue
Economic growth and price environment remains favorable for healthy
product demand
Abundant supply of domestic crude oil and natural gas
providing feedstock advantage
Lower interest rates (10-yr Treasury ~2 percent)
VALERO
Premier operations (+/- 95% utilization)
First quartile operating performance amid stable, upgraded portfolio
(lowest cash operating costs)
Advantaged operations and scale
Disciplined capital investment and growth strategy
Rigorous M&A targeting and screening process
25% after-tax IRR hurdle rate for projects focused on market
expansion, margin enhancement and operating cost reduction
Approximately $2.5 billion annual capex
Distinctive free cash flow and higher stockholder returns
Annualized dividend of $3.60/share
Approximately $7.5 billion of liquidity as of September 30, 2019
Approximately 411 million shares outstanding as of October 29, 2019
Higher lows and less volatility in stock price with support from
dividend and long-only investors
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