Emirates NBD 2014 Achievements and Strategic Update
0.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
M bpd
1.0-
0.5
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
UAE Oil production
Dec-12
UAE Economic Update
Highlights
2014 GDP growth expectation revised down to 4.5% from 5.0% due to
fall in oil price. Oil production has been flat on average in 2014, lower
than the 2% increase in output forecast earlier this year. 2015 GDP
growth forecast also revised lower to 4.3% from 4.8% on the basis
that oil output likely to remain flat again this year
Non-oil sector growth robust, according to Purchasing Managers'
Index, which reached record highs in Q3-14, on the back of strong
output and new order growth, reflecting improved domestic and
external demand
Inflation increased to 2.3% in 2014 on higher housing costs and rising
input prices, up from 1.1% in 2013. Inflation expected to average 3% in
2015
Real GDP Growth Forecasts
UAE
China
Country
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014F 2015F
1.6%
4.9%
4.7%
5.2%
4.5% 4.3%
10.4%
9.3%
7.7%
7.7% 7.4%
7.0%
Eurozone
1.9%
Hong Kong
6.8%
4.8%
1.5%
1.6% -0.7% -0.4% 0.8% 1.5%
2.9% 2.2% 2.7%
India
9.4%
7.7%
4.8%
4.7%
4.8%
5.5%
Japan
4.7%
-0.5%
1.8%
1.6%
0.5% 1.5%
Singapore
15.4%
5.3%
2.5%
3.9%
2.8%
3.2%
UK
1.9%
1.6%
0.7%
1.7%
3.0%
2.5%
US
2.5%
1.6%
2.3%
2.2%
2.0%
3.5%
Saudi
4.8%
10.0% 5.4%
2.7%
3.6%
3.0%
OPEC oil price (rhs)
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research
UAE Oil Production (Ihs)
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
ר ז
140
120
100
༔ སྟྲྀ ༄ ⌘® ༈༙ 8•
USD per barrel
50
Aug-09
Source: Markit/HSBC
54
54
52
62
60
56
58
$ 。 g
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research
UAE PMI - Non Oil Private Sector Activity
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Aug-13
Oct-13
Dec-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
4
Emirates NBDView entire presentation