Tanfeeth Overview

mn bpd UAE Economic Update Highlights Real GDP Growth Forecasts ■ Estimated GDP growth at 3% in 2012 2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F ☐ The UAE's PMI has shown modest expansion in 2012, indicating that private sector activity is expanding modestly UAE 3.3% (1.6%) 1.4% 4.6% 3.0% 3.4% UK UAE's oil output rose in is higher in 9M 2012 compared to the same period last year; Oil prices rose to an average USD 110 per barrel in 9M 2012 as compared to USD 107 per barrel in 2011 (1.1%) (4.9%) 1.4% 1.0% 0.5% 1.4% Eurozone 0.4% (4.1%) 1.7% 1.5% (0.5%) 0.6% Germany 1.1% (5.1%) 3.7% 3.0% 0.5% 1.3% US (0.3%) (3.5%) 3.0% 1.5% 1.5% 2.1% China 9.6% 9.2% 10.3% 9.0% 8.0% 8.3% Japan (1.1%) (6.3%) 4.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.3% Singapore 1.9% (0.8%) 14.9% 5.0% 2.5% 3.5% Hong Kong 2.3% (2.6%) 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 3.8% Oil production trends 2.7 140 60 120 2.6 100 55 2.5 80 2.4 60 2.3 40 USD per barrel 50 50 45 45 2.2 20 2.1 0 40 40 Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research Emirates NBD UAE Oil Production (Ihs) Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 OPEC oil price (rhs) Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Source: HSBC, Markit Source: Global Insight, Emirates NBD forecasts, Bloomberg UAE PMI - private sector expansion trends Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 4 Sep-12

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