Vermilion Energy Financial and Operational Overview
VERMILION
ENERGY
EUROPEAN NATURAL GAS - LONG TERM OUTLOOK
Declining European domestic production results in higher
dependence on imports
Power sector driven gas demand growth is set to continue
Coal phase-outs have been mandated within the EU and nuclear
retirements are ongoing; 38 GW of coal-fired and nuclear power
generation retirements, by 2022, have been announced
These announced retirements are estimated to equal 3-4 bcf/d of
Combined Cycle Gas Turbine power generation installed capacity
LNG and pipeline gas import growth is set to continue and will
require future European gas prices to remain globally competitive
EU policy has mandated a tighter supply of EUA carbon credits
going forward
2018
Europe
Asia Pacific
North America
Global Gas Trade to 2035: European Import Dependence Grows
Net imports (bcf/d)
As % share of demand
2025 2030 2035 2018 2025 2030 2035
28.6 31.3 33.8 34.5 54% 62% 71% 79%
18.6 45.3 69.7 86.6 23% 39% 51% 56%
-3.4 -14.5 -24.2 -33.5 -3% -15% -27%
-44%
TWh per year
1,400
EUROPEAN POWER SECTOR GENERATION MIX
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
O
Higher price carbon favors gas use in the power sector over coal
0
1990
1995
-Coal fired
2000
Gas fired
2005
Nuclear
2010
Wind and Solar
2015
-Hydro
EUROPEAN NATURAL GAS MARKET FUNDAMENTALS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE
Data table source: BP Energy Outlook 2020 (Rapid Scenario)
Chart source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2020
VET: TSX
NYSE
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